UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2
Red Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC Milan
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Red Bull SalzburgTeam 1934AC MilanTeam 2162- Alphadjo Cissè 15', 32', 49'
- Gonçalo Ramos 72'
We gave AC Milan 45% to win: they did.
- 15'Alphadjo Cissè 1765 +77 assist Omari Hutchinson 2300 +45AC Milan:Alphadjo Cissè 1765 +77 assist Omari Hutchinson 2300 +45
- 21'Omari Hutchinson 2300 +45AC Milan:Omari Hutchinson 2300 +45
- 32'Alphadjo Cissè 1765 +77 assist Davide Bartesaghi 2250 +42*AC Milan:Alphadjo Cissè 1765 +77 assist Davide Bartesaghi 2250 +42*
- Valentin Zabransky 1787 −8*40'Red Bull Salzburg:Valentin Zabransky 1787 −8*
- 49'Alphadjo Cissè 1765 +77 assist Adrien Rabiot 2319 +24AC Milan:Alphadjo Cissè 1765 +77 assist Adrien Rabiot 2319 +24
- Gaoussou Diakité 1786 0 for Sota Kitano 1909 −160'Red Bull Salzburg:Gaoussou Diakité 1786 0 for Sota Kitano 1909 −1
- 60'Christian Pulisic 2264 +7 for Alphadjo Cissè 1765 +77AC Milan:Christian Pulisic 2264 +7 for Alphadjo Cissè 1765 +77
- 60'Gonçalo Ramos 2473 +8 for Francesco Camarda 1765 +20*AC Milan:Gonçalo Ramos 2473 +8 for Francesco Camarda 1765 +20*
- Yorbe Vertessen 1948 −2 for Edmund Baidoo 1946 −360'Red Bull Salzburg:Yorbe Vertessen 1948 −2 for Edmund Baidoo 1946 −3
- 61'Luka Modrić 1912 −7 for Adrien Rabiot 2319 +24AC Milan:Luka Modrić 1912 −7 for Adrien Rabiot 2319 +24
- 67'Filippo Terracciano 1968 −2* for Fikayo Tomori 2368 +17*AC Milan:Filippo Terracciano 1968 −2* for Fikayo Tomori 2368 +17*
- 72'Gonçalo Ramos 2473 +8AC Milan:Gonçalo Ramos 2473 +8
- Damir Redzic 1795 −8* for Jesper Lindstrom 2026 −1073'Red Bull Salzburg:Damir Redzic 1795 −8* for Jesper Lindstrom 2026 −10
- Aboubacar Sidiki Camara 1572 0 for Haris Tabaković 2064 −1773'Red Bull Salzburg:Aboubacar Sidiki Camara 1572 0 for Haris Tabaković 2064 −17
- Tim Drexler 1888 0 for Leandro Morgalla 1894 −8*81'Red Bull Salzburg:Tim Drexler 1888 0 for Leandro Morgalla 1894 −8*
- 81'Sankhoun Diawara 1694 −3* for Strahinja Pavlovic 2328 +37AC Milan:Sankhoun Diawara 1694 −3* for Strahinja Pavlovic 2328 +37
- 83'Filippo Terracciano 1968 −2*AC Milan:Filippo Terracciano 1968 −2*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 28% · 27% · 45%(Red Bull Salzburg · draw · AC Milan)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–4 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Red Bull Salzburg €2.3M, AC Milan €19.5M.
- Red Bull Salzburg were without 1 expected starter: N. Veratschnig (1983).
- Bundesliga: K. Boma was the highest-rated defender (2029).
- Serie A: M. Maignan was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2455).
- Red Bull Salzburg were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Red Bull Salzburg
2nd in Bundesliga · 18 pts from 8
- 10 OctDGrazer AK Austrian Bundesliga1939
- 20 SepWSturm Graz Austrian Bundesliga1910
- 17 SepWLevski Sofia UEFA Europa League1918
- 11 SepDRied Austrian Bundesliga1909
- 2 SepWRapid Vienna Austrian Bundesliga1890
AC Milan
5th in Serie A · 12 pts from 6
- 11 OctDSassuolo Serie A2301
- 20 SepWLecce Serie A2243
- 16 SepLBenfica UEFA Europa League2194
- 12 SepDLazio Serie A2199
- 6 SepDJuventus Serie A2255
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 1 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 3 /1 | 11.9 | 16.1 | 66.9 | 17.1 |
| AC Milan | 0 /1 | 13.5 | 36.2 | 57.8 | 6.0 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Red Bull Salzburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.8 (Elite) · Elo 2029
AC Milan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 2295
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Red Bull Salzburg: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Danny Röhl plays) · AC Milan: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Ruben Filipe Marques Diogo Amorim plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.