UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4
Real Sociedad vs Lyon
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Anoeta, San Sebastian
Real Sociedad host Lyon on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Real Sociedad 53%, draw 26%, Lyon 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Real Sociedad €14.8M, Lyon €11.6M.
- Real Sociedad are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Real Sociedad goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.1 pts
Team Elo: Real Sociedad 2214 · Lyon 2115
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Real Sociedad · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 2244
Lyon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2220
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Real Sociedad
5th in La Liga · 16 pts from 9
- 22 OctWLillestrom UEFA Europa League2231
- 18 OctWMalaga La Liga2180
- 15 OctDUnion St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League2169
- 11 OctWDeportivo La Coruna La Liga2156
- 20 SepWValencia La Liga2148
Lyon
1st in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 22 OctL1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League2046
- 18 OctWNice Ligue 12075
- 15 OctWCrystal Palace UEFA Europa League2121
- 9 OctLLens Ligue 12146
- 19 SepWRennes Ligue 12110
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 3 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 4 /3 | 13.1 | 25.4 | 72.0 | 2.7 |
| Lyon | 6 /3 | 14.2 | 31.2 | 67.0 | 1.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Real Sociedad: balanced profile (how Pellegrino Matarazzo plays) · Lyon: possession-based (how Paulo Fonseca plays)