UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
Real Madrid host RB Leipzig on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Real Madrid 65%, draw 21%, RB Leipzig 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Real Madrid €65.5M, RB Leipzig €24.1M.
- Real Madrid's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Real Madrid goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.7 pts
Team Elo: Real Madrid 2482 · RB Leipzig 2226
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Real Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.0 (Good) · Elo 2565
RB Leipzig · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Elite) · Elo 2260
Absences
Real Madrid
Ruled out
- Raúl AsencioBroken Leg2430
- RodrygoKnee Injury2409
- F. MendyHip Injury2373
RB Leipzig
Ruled out
- A. OuédraogoShoulder Injury1979
- Marc GuiuHamstring Injury1974
Doubtful
- C. BaumgartnerThigh Injury2312
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Real Madrid
3rd in La Liga · 21 pts from 9
- 18 OctWSevilla La Liga2464
- 14 OctWAS Roma UEFA Champions League2471
- 10 OctWVillarreal La Liga2449
- 20 SepLAtletico Madrid La Liga2494
- 15 SepWElche La Liga2475
RB Leipzig
7th in Bundesliga · 9 pts from 6
- 17 OctLBayern München Bundesliga2268
- 13 OctWPSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League2287
- 10 OctWEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2229
- 20 SepLBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga2250
- 13 SepWHamburger SV Bundesliga2137
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 6 /2 | 18.2 | 85.3 | 14.6 | 0.1 |
| RB Leipzig | 3 /2 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 66.3 | 28.5 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Real Madrid: possession-based · creative (how José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix plays) · RB Leipzig: dribble-heavy (how Martín Gastón Demichelis plays)