UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5
Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Real Madrid host PSV Eindhoven on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Real Madrid 70%, draw 19%, PSV Eindhoven 11%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Real Madrid €56.7M, PSV Eindhoven €10.2M.
- Eredivisie: S. Dest is the highest-rated defender (2365).
- Real Madrid's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 over 180 days.
- PSV Eindhoven's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 over 180 days.
- Real Madrid have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Real Madrid goals first.
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 1–18%
- 3–18%
- 3–08%
- 1–06%
- Other scores52%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com3–1expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–1expected 4.8 pts
Team Elo: Real Madrid 2538 · PSV Eindhoven 2225
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Real Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.0 (Elite) · Elo 2623
PSV Eindhoven · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2365
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Real Madrid
2nd in La Liga · 30 pts from 12
- 7 NovWValencia La Liga2539
- 4 NovWAEK Athens FC UEFA Champions League2504
- 1 NovWRacing Santander La Liga2530
- 25 OctWBarcelona La Liga2502
- 21 OctWRB Leipzig UEFA Champions League2486
PSV Eindhoven
1st in Eredivisie · 26 pts from 12
- 8 NovWCambuur Eredivisie2223
- 4 NovLClub Brugge KV UEFA Champions League2228
- 31 OctWWillem II Eredivisie2262
- 25 OctDFeyenoord Eredivisie2230
- 20 OctWFC Porto UEFA Champions League2188
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 12 /4 | 20.3 | 97.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 4 /4 | 9.4 | 0.5 | 58.0 | 41.5 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Real Madrid: possession-based · creative (how José Mourinho plays) · PSV Eindhoven: possession-based · creative (how Peter Bosz plays)