UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2
Real Betis 3–2 FC Porto
Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio de la Cartuja, Seville
Real BetisTeam 2279FC PortoTeam 2295- Abde Ezzalzouli 47'
- Cucho Hernández 74'
- Isco 84' (pen)
- Gabri Veiga 54'
- Samuel Aghehowa 61'
We gave Real Betis 43% to win: they did.
- 42'Francesco FarioliFC Porto:Francesco Farioli
- Abde Ezzalzouli 2346 +38 assist Francisco José García Torres 2460 +2447'Real Betis:Abde Ezzalzouli 2346 +38 assist Francisco José García Torres 2460 +24
- 54'Gabri Veiga 2391 −1FC Porto:Gabri Veiga 2391 −1
- 56'André Silva 2104 −3FC Porto:André Silva 2104 −3
- Nelson Deossa 2179 +1456'Real Betis:Nelson Deossa 2179 +14
- Abde Ezzalzouli 2346 +3856'Real Betis:Abde Ezzalzouli 2346 +38
- 59'Oskar Pietuszewski 1940 0 for Borja Sainz 2253 0FC Porto:Oskar Pietuszewski 1940 0 for Borja Sainz 2253 0
- 59'Samuel Aghehowa 2303 0 for André Silva 2104 −3FC Porto:Samuel Aghehowa 2303 0 for André Silva 2104 −3
- 59'Alberto Costa 2330 0 for Martim Fernandes 2205 −8*FC Porto:Alberto Costa 2330 0 for Martim Fernandes 2205 −8*
- 61'Samuel Aghehowa 2303 0 assist Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa 2382 −2FC Porto:Samuel Aghehowa 2303 0 assist Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa 2382 −2
- Dani Ceballos 2299 +2 for Nelson Deossa 2179 +1462'Real Betis:Dani Ceballos 2299 +2 for Nelson Deossa 2179 +14
- Cucho Hernández 2289 +13 for Troy Parrott 2262 +1262'Real Betis:Cucho Hernández 2289 +13 for Troy Parrott 2262 +12
- 71'Hwang In-Beom 2187 −2 for Gabri Veiga 2391 −1FC Porto:Hwang In-Beom 2187 −2 for Gabri Veiga 2391 −1
- 73'Alan Gonzalo Varela 2376 0FC Porto:Alan Gonzalo Varela 2376 0
- Cucho Hernández 2289 +13 assist Antony Matheus dos Santos 2399 +3174'Real Betis:Cucho Hernández 2289 +13 assist Antony Matheus dos Santos 2399 +31
- Dani Ceballos 2299 +277'Real Betis:Dani Ceballos 2299 +2
- Isco 2199 +48 (pen.)84'Real Betis:Isco 2199 +48 (pen.)
- 85'Santiago Giménez 2224 −8* for Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa 2382 −2FC Porto:Santiago Giménez 2224 −8* for Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa 2382 −2
- 86'Santiago Giménez 2224 −8*FC Porto:Santiago Giménez 2224 −8*
- Facundo Bernal 2152 −7* for Isco 2199 +4887'Real Betis:Facundo Bernal 2152 −7* for Isco 2199 +48
- Pablo Fornals 2294 −2 for Marc Roca 2292 +1387'Real Betis:Pablo Fornals 2294 −2 for Marc Roca 2292 +13
- Rodrigo Riquelme 2246 0 for Antony Matheus dos Santos 2399 +3190'Real Betis:Rodrigo Riquelme 2246 0 for Antony Matheus dos Santos 2399 +31
- Ángel Ortiz 2016 +22*90+3'Real Betis:Ángel Ortiz 2016 +22*
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 43% · 28% · 29%(Real Betis · draw · FC Porto)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–2 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Real Betis €14.4M, FC Porto €20.3M.
- FC Porto were without 2 expected starters: J. Bednarek (2473) and William (2179).
- Home advantage made Real Betis the favourite: it added 9 points to their win chance.
- Primeira Liga: Diogo Costa was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2617).
- All 11 of Real Betis' expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Real Betis
3rd in La Liga · 19 pts from 8
- 11 OctWOsasuna La Liga2276
- 20 SepDDeportivo La Coruna La Liga2287
- 17 SepWGetafe La Liga2213
- 14 SepWVillarreal La Liga2249
- 8 SepWLille UEFA Champions League2194
FC Porto
1st in Primeira Liga · 24 pts from 8
- 10 OctWMaritimo Primeira Liga2345
- 20 SepWBenfica Primeira Liga2331
- 12 SepWCasa Pia Primeira Liga2304
- 8 SepLManchester City UEFA Champions League2311
- 4 SepWMoreirense Primeira Liga2338
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | 3 /1 | 12.9 | 24.3 | 65.8 | 9.9 |
| FC Porto | 0 /1 | 12.0 | 17.4 | 66.2 | 16.4 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Real Betis · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2307
FC Porto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2534
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Real Betis: balanced profile (how Manuel Luis Pellegrini Ripamonti plays) · FC Porto: possession-based (how Francesco Farioli plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.