UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City
Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig host Manchester City on Wed 4 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: RB Leipzig 18%, draw 24%, Manchester City 59%.
- Average value of the expected XI: RB Leipzig €24.7M, Manchester City €59.0M.
- Premier League: Rúben Dias is the highest-rated defender (2704).
- Manchester City's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. RB Leipzig goals first.
- 1–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–110%
- 0–37%
- 0–07%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 4.3 pts
Team Elo: RB Leipzig 2227 · Manchester City 2620
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
RB Leipzig · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Elite) · Elo 2260
Manchester City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2571
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
RB Leipzig
7th in Bundesliga · 9 pts from 6
- 17 OctLBayern München Bundesliga2268
- 13 OctWPSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League2287
- 10 OctWEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2229
- 20 SepLBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga2250
- 13 SepWHamburger SV Bundesliga2137
Manchester City
1st in Premier League · 21 pts from 7
- 17 OctWIpswich Premier League2592
- 14 OctLParis Saint Germain UEFA Champions League2653
- 11 OctWLiverpool Premier League2628
- 20 SepWSunderland Premier League2621
- 17 SepWNorwich England League Cup2296
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 3 /2 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 66.1 | 28.7 |
| Manchester City | 3 /2 | 15.8 | 62.9 | 36.3 | 0.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
RB Leipzig: dribble-heavy (how M. Demichelis plays) · Manchester City: possession-based · creative (how Enzo Maresca plays)