UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5
RB Leipzig vs Lens
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig host Lens on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: RB Leipzig 60%, draw 23%, Lens 17%.
- Average value of the expected XI: RB Leipzig €26.1M, Lens €8.9M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. RB Leipzig goals first.
- 1–110%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 3–17%
- 2–27%
- 1–06%
- Other scores53%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–1expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: RB Leipzig 2241 · Lens 2049
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
RB Leipzig · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2397
Lens · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2111
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
RB Leipzig
4th in Bundesliga · 18 pts from 9
- 7 NovWFC Augsburg Bundesliga2234
- 4 NovLManchester City UEFA Champions League2306
- 31 OctWFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2263
- 27 OctWRot-Weiß Essen Germany DFB Pokal2175
- 24 OctWSV Elversberg Bundesliga2100
Lens
11th in Ligue 1 · 13 pts from 10
- 8 NovLMarseille Ligue 12045
- 4 NovLComo UEFA Champions League2079
- 30 OctLLille Ligue 12085
- 24 OctWParis FC Ligue 12111
- 21 OctLClub Brugge KV UEFA Champions League2066
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 3 /4 | 9.7 | 0.2 | 61.0 | 38.7 |
| Lens | 3 /4 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 90.5 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
RB Leipzig: dribble-heavy (how M. Demichelis plays) · Lens: balanced profile (how D. Toppmöller plays)