UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint Germain host Barcelona on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Paris Saint Germain 34%, draw 29%, Barcelona 37%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Paris Saint Germain €56.8M, Barcelona €52.8M.
- Barcelona are without 1 expected starter: Eric García (2710).
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Champions League average of 23% this round.
- Ligue 1: M. Safonov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2457).
- La Liga: Joan García is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2705).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Paris Saint Germain goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Paris Saint Germain 2488 · Barcelona 2617
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: X. Espart for Eric García.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Paris Saint Germain · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2598
Barcelona · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.4 (Elite) · Elo 2791
Absences
Barcelona
Ruled out
- Eric GarcíaMuscle Injury2710
- J. KoundéAnkle Injury2682
- A. ChristensenMuscle Injury2337
- R. BardghjiKnee Injury2002
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Paris Saint Germain
2nd in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 17 OctWStrasbourg Ligue 12416
- 14 OctWManchester City UEFA Champions League2466
- 10 OctWLe Mans Ligue 12381
- 20 SepWMarseille Ligue 12464
- 13 SepWStade Brestois 29 Ligue 12476
Barcelona
1st in La Liga · 27 pts from 9
- 17 OctWReal Betis La Liga2636
- 13 OctWGalatasaray UEFA Champions League2677
- 10 OctWGetafe La Liga2598
- 19 SepWSevilla La Liga2614
- 16 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2611
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 6 /2 | 16.3 | 67.5 | 31.8 | 0.7 |
| Barcelona | 6 /2 | 18.3 | 87.7 | 12.2 | 0.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Paris Saint Germain: possession-based · creative (how Luis Enrique plays) · Barcelona: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Hansi Flick plays)