UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5
Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint Germain host AS Roma on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Paris Saint Germain 61%, draw 23%, AS Roma 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Paris Saint Germain €54.6M, AS Roma €20.8M.
- Ligue 1: M. Safonov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2550).
- Paris Saint Germain have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Paris Saint Germain goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 1–08%
- 3–17%
- 3–07%
- Other scores48%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–1expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: Paris Saint Germain 2491 · AS Roma 2294
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Paris Saint Germain · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2597
AS Roma · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2308
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Paris Saint Germain
1st in Ligue 1 · 23 pts from 10
- 7 NovWEstac Troyes Ligue 12502
- 3 NovWVillarreal UEFA Champions League2499
- 30 OctWLe Havre Ligue 12398
- 26 OctWLyon Ligue 12519
- 20 OctWBarcelona UEFA Champions League2504
AS Roma
3rd in Serie A · 27 pts from 11
- 7 NovWSassuolo Serie A2295
- 3 NovLManchester United UEFA Champions League2261
- 31 OctWUdinese Serie A2265
- 27 OctWCagliari Serie A2224
- 24 OctDNapoli Serie A2268
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 12 /4 | 19.1 | 93.7 | 6.3 | 0.0 |
| AS Roma | 4 /4 | 10.2 | 2.0 | 73.1 | 24.9 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Paris Saint Germain: possession-based · creative (how Luis Enrique plays) · AS Roma: possession-based (how G. Gasperini plays)