UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3
Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Olympic Stadium of Athens, Athens
Panathinaikos host CSKA Sofia on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Panathinaikos 66%, draw 21%, CSKA Sofia 13%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Panathinaikos €4.4M, CSKA Sofia €1.4M.
- First League: F. Lapoukhov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1908).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Panathinaikos goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.8 pts
Team Elo: Panathinaikos 2053 · CSKA Sofia 1788
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Panathinaikos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2073
CSKA Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1908
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Panathinaikos
1st in Super League 1 · 18 pts from 7
- 22 OctWKairat Almaty UEFA Conference League2001
- 18 OctWAsteras Tripolis Greece Super League2054
- 15 OctWBorac Banja Luka UEFA Conference League2037
- 11 OctLOlympiakos Piraeus Greece Super League2063
- 20 SepWKalamata Greece Super League2048
CSKA Sofia
2nd in First League · 27 pts from 11
- 22 OctDFC Nordsjaelland UEFA Conference League1816
- 15 OctLMonaco UEFA Conference League1837
- 11 OctWCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1820
- 20 SepDLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1782
- 16 SepWLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1776
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 2 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 6 /2 | 11.5 | 42.3 | 56.8 | 0.8 |
| CSKA Sofia | 1 /2 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 45.9 | 53.4 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Panathinaikos: possession-based (how J. Neestrup plays) · CSKA Sofia: creative · shot-heavy (how Markus Gisdol plays)