UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2
Pafos vs Riga
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
Pafos host Riga on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Pafos 56%, draw 25%, Riga 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Pafos €1.4M, Riga €515K.
- 1. Division: R. Majecki is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1996).
- Virsliga: A. Salazar is the highest-rated defender (1781).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Pafos goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: Pafos 1798 · Riga 1659
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Pafos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1819
Riga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1780
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Pafos
5th in 1. Division · 10 pts from 5
- 15 OctLAtalanta UEFA Conference League1800
- 11 OctWAnorthosis Cypriot First Division1799
- 18 SepLAEL Cypriot First Division1774
- 13 SepWAEK Larnaca Cypriot First Division1757
- 7 SepDOlympiakos Cypriot First Division1783
Riga
2nd in Virsliga · 79 pts from 33
- 18 OctWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1571
- 15 OctDKairat Almaty UEFA Conference League1637
- 15 SepWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1620
- 7 SepDBFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga1694
- 31 AugLFK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga1604
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 1 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos | 0 /1 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 56.8 | 38.4 |
| Riga | 1 /1 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 47.1 | 50.3 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –