UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4
Pafos vs FC Midtjylland
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
Pafos host FC Midtjylland on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Pafos 29%, draw 28%, FC Midtjylland 43%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Pafos €1.4M, FC Midtjylland €3.3M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Pafos goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–29%
- 0–18%
- 2–17%
- 0–27%
- 0–07%
- Other scores49%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–2expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: Pafos 1768 · FC Midtjylland 1970
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Pafos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1902
FC Midtjylland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2077
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Pafos
6th in 1. Division · 16 pts from 9
- 8 NovWOmonia 29is Maiou Cypriot First Division1690
- 5 NovLTwente UEFA Conference League1752
- 31 OctDApollon Limassol Cypriot First Division1746
- 26 OctDNea Salamis Cypriot First Division1705
- 22 OctDRiga UEFA Conference League1778
FC Midtjylland
2nd in Superliga · 32 pts from 14
- 8 NovDSonderjyske Denmark Superliga1926
- 5 NovLAjax UEFA Conference League1998
- 1 NovWFC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superliga1949
- 25 OctWLyngby Denmark Superliga1956
- 22 OctLSt. Truiden UEFA Conference League1934
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 3 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos | 1 /3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 36.7 | 63.3 |
| FC Midtjylland | 1 /3 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 62.8 | 37.2 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Pafos: balanced profile (how Sá Pinto plays) · FC Midtjylland: dribble-heavy · direct (how Mike Tullberg plays)