UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AC Milan
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus host AC Milan on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Olympiakos Piraeus 30%, draw 29%, AC Milan 41%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Olympiakos Piraeus €5.6M, AC Milan €23.8M.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Europa League average of 22% this round.
- Super League 1: S. Ortega is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2283).
- Serie A: M. Maignan is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2494).
- Olympiakos Piraeus are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Olympiakos Piraeus goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–112%
- 0–010%
- 1–010%
- 1–28%
- 0–28%
- Other scores38%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com0–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.6 pts
Team Elo: Olympiakos Piraeus 2103 · AC Milan 2284
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Olympiakos Piraeus · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 (Average) · Elo 2246
AC Milan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2075
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Olympiakos Piraeus
2nd in Super League 1 · 23 pts from 10
- 8 NovDPAOK Greece Super League2138
- 4 NovDRennes UEFA Europa League2091
- 31 OctWKifisia Greece Super League2138
- 25 OctWKalamata Greece Super League2068
- 22 OctWSparta Praha UEFA Europa League2139
AC Milan
4th in Serie A · 24 pts from 11
- 8 NovWGenoa Serie A2223
- 5 NovLFerencvarosi TC UEFA Europa League2189
- 31 OctWInter Serie A2244
- 28 OctLBologna Serie A2281
- 25 OctWUdinese Serie A2239
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 10 /4 | 16.9 | 73.9 | 26.1 | 0.0 |
| AC Milan | 3 /4 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 82.8 | 10.6 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Olympiakos Piraeus: creative · shot-heavy (how Imanol Alguacil plays) · AC Milan: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Ruben Amorim plays)