UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion
OFI host Bayer Leverkusen on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: OFI 14%, draw 21%, Bayer Leverkusen 65%.
- Average value of the expected XI: OFI €924K, Bayer Leverkusen €24.1M.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. OFI goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–38%
- 1–37%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–2expected 4.7 pts
Team Elo: OFI 1811 · Bayer Leverkusen 2278
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
OFI · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.3 (Good) · Elo 1803
Bayer Leverkusen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2342
Absences
OFI
Ruled out
- C. SielisInactive1829
- A. LeyaInactive1579
- N. MarinakisGroin Injury1357
Bayer Leverkusen
Ruled out
- V. BonifaceOff the roster2280
- G. DouéCalf Injury2243
- M. TerrierMuscle Injury2192
- E. Ben SeghirMuscle Injury2061
- Christian KofaneMuscle Injury2054
- T. OermannOff the roster1972
- J. HofmannOff the roster1953
Doubtful
- M. CulbreathFoot Injury1985
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
OFI
7th in Super League 1 · 10 pts from 7
- 18 OctLKalamata Greece Super League1798
- 15 OctLRennes UEFA Europa League1846
- 10 OctLAEK Athens FC Greece Super League1867
- 20 SepDAsteras Tripolis Greece Super League1812
- 17 SepW1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League1822
Bayer Leverkusen
4th in Bundesliga · 13 pts from 6
- 18 OctWSC Freiburg Bundesliga2282
- 15 OctWLech Poznan UEFA Europa League2248
- 10 OctWFSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga2262
- 20 SepWRB Leipzig Bundesliga2234
- 16 SepWCelje UEFA Europa League2226
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFI | 3 /2 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 51.4 | 47.5 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 6 /2 | 17.5 | 78.5 | 21.3 | 0.2 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
OFI: balanced profile (how Christos Kontis plays) · Bayer Leverkusen: possession-based · low-block (how Carles Martínez Novell plays)