UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Maradona Stadium, Naples
Napoli host Bodo/Glimt on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Napoli 57%, draw 25%, Bodo/Glimt 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Napoli €17.6M, Bodo/Glimt €5.3M.
- Eliteserien: N. Haikin is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2236).
- Bodo/Glimt's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Napoli goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: Napoli 2217 · Bodo/Glimt 2070
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Napoli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2250
Bodo/Glimt · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.0 (Elite) · Elo 2267
Absences
Napoli
Ruled out
- David NeresThigh Injury2304
- A. BuongiornoKnee Injury2284
- C. FavasuliThigh Injury1878
- A. VergaraCalf Injury1786
- Alisson SantosMuscle Injury1760
Bodo/Glimt
Ruled out
- H. EvjenKnee Injury2165
- A. MikkelsenGroin Injury1690
- M. RiisnæsKnee Injury1537
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Napoli
9th in Serie A · 10 pts from 7
- 17 OctLVenezia Serie A2210
- 13 OctLVillarreal UEFA Champions League2236
- 10 OctWFrosinone Serie A2274
- 20 SepDFiorentina Serie A2253
- 13 SepWBologna Serie A2188
Bodo/Glimt
1st in Eliteserien · 56 pts from 23
- 17 OctWHam-Kam Eliteserien2050
- 14 OctWBorussia Dortmund UEFA Champions League2099
- 10 OctWKristiansund BK Eliteserien2148
- 20 SepLBrann Eliteserien2086
- 14 SepWSandefjord Eliteserien2067
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 0 /2 | 9.4 | 1.9 | 56.5 | 41.5 |
| Bodo/Glimt | 3 /2 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 57.4 | 38.4 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Napoli: possession-based (how Massimiliano Allegri plays) · Bodo/Glimt: possession-based (how Kjetil Knutsen plays)