Serie A · Regular Season - 8
Napoli vs AS Roma
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Napoli host AS Roma on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Napoli 33%, draw 29%, AS Roma 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Napoli €17.6M, AS Roma €20.2M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Napoli goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Napoli 2217 · AS Roma 2263
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Napoli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2250
AS Roma · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2450
Absences
Napoli
Ruled out
- A. BuongiornoJumpers Knee2284
AS Roma
None reported
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Napoli
9th in Serie A · 10 pts from 7
- 17 OctLVenezia Serie A2210
- 13 OctLVillarreal UEFA Champions League2236
- 10 OctWFrosinone Serie A2274
- 20 SepDFiorentina Serie A2253
- 13 SepWBologna Serie A2188
AS Roma
3rd in Serie A · 17 pts from 7
- 17 OctWGenoa Serie A2178
- 14 OctLReal Madrid UEFA Champions League2300
- 11 OctDComo Serie A2294
- 19 SepDInter Serie A2341
- 14 SepWTorino Serie A2282
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 10 /7 | 61.5 | <1% | 17% | 0% | 7th |
| AS Roma | 17 /7 | 72.0 | 9% | 72% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Napoli: possession-based (how Massimiliano Allegri plays) · AS Roma: possession-based (how Gian Piero Gasperini plays)