J1 League · Regular Season - 12
Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Toyota Stadium, Toyota City
Nagoya Grampus host Yokohama F. Marinos on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Nagoya Grampus 37%, draw 29%, Yokohama F. Marinos 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nagoya Grampus €508K, Yokohama F. Marinos €559K.
- Home advantage makes Nagoya Grampus the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in chance creation (J1 League): Nagoya Grampus rank #20 of 23, Yokohama F. Marinos #4.
- All 11 of Nagoya Grampus' expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Yokohama F. Marinos are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Nagoya Grampus goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Nagoya Grampus 1689 · Yokohama F. Marinos 1729
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nagoya Grampus · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1782
Yokohama F. Marinos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1889
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nagoya Grampus
12th in J1 League · 12 pts from 10
- 17 OctWKashiwa Reysol J1 League1643
- 11 OctWKawasaki Frontale J1 League1628
- 19 SepLFC Tokyo J1 League1676
- 12 SepLV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1670
- 6 SepLMachida Zelvia J1 League1633
Yokohama F. Marinos
8th in J1 League · 16 pts from 10
- 17 OctDJEF United Chiba J1 League1709
- 10 OctDCerezo Osaka J1 League1704
- 19 SepWMito Hollyhock J1 League1690
- 12 SepDMachida Zelvia J1 League1733
- 6 SepWKashiwa Reysol J1 League1657
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 12 /10 | 50.0 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 10th |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 16 /10 | 56.0 | <1% | 6% | <1% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nagoya Grampus: balanced profile (how Mihailo Petrovic plays) · Yokohama F. Marinos: balanced profile (how Stephen Christopher Corica plays)