J1 League · Regular Season - 11
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Toyota Stadium, Toyota
Nagoya Grampus host Cerezo Osaka on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Nagoya Grampus 40%, draw 29%, Cerezo Osaka 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nagoya Grampus €508K, Cerezo Osaka €619K.
- Home advantage makes Nagoya Grampus the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in dribbling (J1 League): Nagoya Grampus rank #23 of 23, Cerezo Osaka #1.
- All 11 of Nagoya Grampus' expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- All 11 of Cerezo Osaka's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Nagoya Grampus goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Nagoya Grampus 1689 · Cerezo Osaka 1699
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nagoya Grampus · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1782
Cerezo Osaka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1733
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nagoya Grampus
12th in J1 League · 12 pts from 10
- 17 OctWKashiwa Reysol J1 League1643
- 11 OctWKawasaki Frontale J1 League1628
- 19 SepLFC Tokyo J1 League1676
- 12 SepLV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1670
- 6 SepLMachida Zelvia J1 League1633
Cerezo Osaka
13th in J1 League · 12 pts from 10
- 17 OctLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1701
- 10 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1742
- 19 SepDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1725
- 12 SepLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1773
- 6 SepDTokyo Verdy J1 League1735
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 12 /10 | 50.0 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 10th |
| Cerezo Osaka | 12 /10 | 48.9 | 0% | <1% | 3% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nagoya Grampus: balanced profile (how Mihailo Petrovic plays) · Cerezo Osaka: possession-based (how Pablo Javier Machín Díez plays)