Serie A · Regular Season - 12
Monza vs Fiorentina
Mon 23 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UTC
Monza host Fiorentina on Mon 23 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Monza 23%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 51%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Monza €3.2M, Fiorentina €14.1M.
- Only 2 of Monza's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Monza goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–29%
- 0–19%
- 0–28%
- 0–06%
- 2–26%
- Other scores49%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–2expected 3.9 pts
Team Elo: Monza 1927 · Fiorentina 2129
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Monza · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 (Good) · Elo 1895
Fiorentina · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1858
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Monza
18th in Serie A · 7 pts from 11
- 8 NovLAtalanta Serie A1878
- 31 OctLBologna Serie A1931
- 28 OctLNapoli Serie A1900
- 23 OctLTorino Serie A1962
- 19 OctWCagliari Serie A1890
Fiorentina
15th in Serie A · 9 pts from 11
- 8 NovDJuventus Serie A2132
- 2 NovWSassuolo Serie A2079
- 29 OctDAtalanta Serie A2077
- 25 OctLInter Serie A2093
- 18 OctLComo Serie A2115
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 7 /11 | 31.0 | 0% | 0% | 61% | 20th |
| Fiorentina | 9 /11 | 48.6 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Monza: balanced profile (how Ivan Jurić plays) · Fiorentina: balanced profile (how Paolo Vanoli plays)