UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2
Monaco vs SC Freiburg
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade Louis II, Monaco
Monaco host SC Freiburg on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Monaco 41%, draw 29%, SC Freiburg 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Monaco €10.0M, SC Freiburg €14.2M.
- Home advantage makes Monaco the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Monaco goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Monaco 2132 · SC Freiburg 2174
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Monaco · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2274
SC Freiburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2285
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Monaco
5th in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 18 OctLLorient Ligue 12176
- 15 OctWCSKA Sofia UEFA Conference League2103
- 10 OctDToulouse Ligue 12127
- 18 SepWLens Ligue 12130
- 12 SepDStrasbourg Ligue 12135
SC Freiburg
3rd in Bundesliga · 13 pts from 6
- 18 OctLBayer Leverkusen Bundesliga2231
- 15 OctWFK Jablonec UEFA Conference League2099
- 11 OctWFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga2249
- 19 SepDEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga2245
- 12 SepWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga2226
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 1 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 3 /1 | 12.0 | 55.2 | 43.9 | 0.9 |
| SC Freiburg | 3 /1 | 11.8 | 50.2 | 47.5 | 2.3 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Monaco: balanced profile (how Filipe Luís Kasmirski plays) · SC Freiburg: balanced profile (how Julian Schuster plays)