UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3
Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stade Louis II, Monaco
Monaco host FC Nordsjaelland on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Monaco 68%, draw 20%, FC Nordsjaelland 12%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Monaco €9.5M, FC Nordsjaelland €2.9M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Monaco goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 1–08%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores47%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.8 pts
Team Elo: Monaco 2152 · FC Nordsjaelland 1863
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Monaco · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2306
FC Nordsjaelland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.8 (Elite) · Elo 1902
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Monaco
5th in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 22 OctWSC Freiburg UEFA Conference League2112
- 18 OctLLorient Ligue 12176
- 15 OctWCSKA Sofia UEFA Conference League2103
- 10 OctDToulouse Ligue 12127
- 18 SepWLens Ligue 12130
FC Nordsjaelland
4th in Superliga · 19 pts from 11
- 22 OctDCSKA Sofia UEFA Conference League1882
- 18 OctDLyngby Denmark Superliga1896
- 15 OctDHeart Of Midlothian UEFA Conference League1915
- 9 OctDOdense Denmark Superliga1830
- 20 SepLViborg Denmark Superliga1888
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 2 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 6 /2 | 13.7 | 80.4 | 19.6 | 0.1 |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 2 /2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 64.4 | 32.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Monaco: balanced profile (how Filipe Luís plays) · FC Nordsjaelland: possession-based (how J. Olsen plays)