J1 League · Regular Season - 16
Mito Hollyhock vs Tokyo Verdy
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Best Denki Stadium, Mito
Mito Hollyhock host Tokyo Verdy on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Mito Hollyhock 31%, draw 29%, Tokyo Verdy 41%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Mito Hollyhock €316K, Tokyo Verdy €532K.
- Mito Hollyhock's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Mito Hollyhock goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–111%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 1–28%
- 0–28%
- Other scores41%
Team Elo: Mito Hollyhock 1497 · Tokyo Verdy 1630
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Mito Hollyhock · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1622
Tokyo Verdy · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1759
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Mito Hollyhock
19th in J1 League · 9 pts from 14
- 8 NovLJEF United Chiba J1 League1459
- 31 OctLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1470
- 25 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1464
- 21 OctLFagiano Okayama J1 League1526
- 17 OctLUrawa J1 League1533
Tokyo Verdy
14th in J1 League · 14 pts from 14
- 7 NovWShimizu S-pulse J1 League1649
- 1 NovWV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1620
- 24 OctWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1584
- 21 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1583
- 17 OctLFC Tokyo J1 League1549
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mito Hollyhock | 9 /14 | 30.7 | 0% | 0% | 84% | 20th |
| Tokyo Verdy | 14 /14 | 42.4 | 0% | 0% | 15% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Mito Hollyhock: balanced profile (how Naoki Mori plays) · Tokyo Verdy: balanced profile (how Naoki Soma plays)