J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Best Denki Stadium, Mito
Mito Hollyhock host Sanfrecce Hiroshima on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Mito Hollyhock 19%, draw 25%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 56%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Mito Hollyhock €378K, Sanfrecce Hiroshima €1.5M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of J1 League matchday 13: 312 points.
- Mito Hollyhock's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Mito Hollyhock goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–210%
- 0–210%
- 0–110%
- 0–07%
- 1–36%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Mito Hollyhock 1551 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1863
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Mito Hollyhock · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1657
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 1913
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Mito Hollyhock
14th in J1 League · 9 pts from 10
- 17 OctLUrawa J1 League1541
- 11 OctLShimizu S-pulse J1 League1536
- 19 SepLYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1617
- 12 SepLKawasaki Frontale J1 League1595
- 5 SepDAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1622
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1st in J1 League · 23 pts from 10
- 17 OctWKyoto Sanga J1 League1847
- 11 OctWTokyo Verdy J1 League1829
- 19 SepWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1821
- 12 SepWCerezo Osaka J1 League1811
- 6 SepLFagiano Okayama J1 League1853
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mito Hollyhock | 9 /10 | 37.0 | 0% | 0% | 47% | 18th |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 23 /10 | 69.9 | 20% | 71% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Mito Hollyhock: balanced profile (how Daisuke Kimori plays) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima: creative · shot-heavy (how Bartosch Gaul plays)