UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5
Marseille vs Levski Sofia
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC
Marseille host Levski Sofia on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Marseille 73%, draw 17%, Levski Sofia 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Marseille €13.8M, Levski Sofia €1.0M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Marseille goals first.
- 2–013%
- 1–012%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 1–18%
- 3–17%
- Other scores41%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.3 pts
Team Elo: Marseille 2132 · Levski Sofia 1779
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Marseille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2202
Levski Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1843
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Marseille
4th in Ligue 1 · 18 pts from 10
- 8 NovWLens Ligue 12142
- 5 NovWBayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League2119
- 1 NovWToulouse Ligue 12110
- 25 OctWLe Havre Ligue 12100
- 22 OctLSturm Graz UEFA Europa League2017
Levski Sofia
2nd in First League · 32 pts from 13
- 8 NovLCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1779
- 5 NovWJagiellonia UEFA Europa League1824
- 31 OctWDunav Ruse Bulgarian First League1755
- 27 OctDArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1770
- 22 OctWPlzen UEFA Europa League1786
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 3 /4 | 10.2 | 2.0 | 69.1 | 28.9 |
| Levski Sofia | 7 /4 | 10.5 | 1.8 | 74.3 | 24.0 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Marseille: possession-based (how Bruno Génésio plays) · Levski Sofia: shot-heavy · creative (how Julio Velázquez plays)