UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4
Manchester United vs AS Roma
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester
Manchester United host AS Roma on Tue 3 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Manchester United 52%, draw 26%, AS Roma 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Manchester United €35.7M, AS Roma €20.2M.
- Manchester United's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Manchester United goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.0 pts
Team Elo: Manchester United 2361 · AS Roma 2263
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Manchester United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2408
AS Roma · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2450
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Manchester United
13th in Premier League · 7 pts from 7
- 18 OctDLeeds Premier League2376
- 13 OctLAtletico Madrid UEFA Champions League2365
- 10 OctDTottenham Premier League2404
- 20 SepDFulham Premier League2414
- 16 SepLBrighton England League Cup2242
AS Roma
3rd in Serie A · 17 pts from 7
- 17 OctWGenoa Serie A2178
- 14 OctLReal Madrid UEFA Champions League2300
- 11 OctDComo Serie A2294
- 19 SepDInter Serie A2341
- 14 SepWTorino Serie A2282
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 3 /2 | 12.2 | 18.0 | 68.2 | 13.8 |
| AS Roma | 1 /2 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 68.4 | 26.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Manchester United: creative (how Michael Carrick plays) · AS Roma: possession-based (how Gian Piero Gasperini plays)