UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5
Manchester City vs Napoli
Tue 24 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City host Napoli on Tue 24 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Manchester City 75%, draw 16%, Napoli 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Manchester City €61.3M, Napoli €18.5M.
- Draw chance 16%, below the UEFA Champions League average of 22% this round.
- Premier League: M. Guéhi is the highest-rated defender (2681).
- Manchester City's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Manchester City goals first.
- 2–011%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 1–09%
- 3–18%
- 1–18%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.3 pts
Team Elo: Manchester City 2585 · Napoli 2202
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Manchester City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.0 (Elite) · Elo 2562
Napoli · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Average) · Elo 2221
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Manchester City
3rd in Premier League · 21 pts from 10
- 7 NovLNottingham Forest Premier League2617
- 4 NovWRB Leipzig UEFA Champions League2611
- 31 OctLBrighton Premier League2587
- 28 OctDBrighton England League Cup2345
- 24 OctLAston Villa Premier League2631
Napoli
10th in Serie A · 15 pts from 11
- 8 NovDLazio Serie A2207
- 4 NovLFC Porto UEFA Champions League2203
- 1 NovLJuventus Serie A2195
- 28 OctWMonza Serie A2246
- 24 OctDAS Roma Serie A2260
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 9 /4 | 17.0 | 77.3 | 22.6 | 0.0 |
| Napoli | 3 /4 | 9.4 | 0.2 | 58.0 | 41.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Manchester City: possession-based · creative (how Enzo Maresca plays) · Napoli: possession-based (how Massimiliano Allegri plays)