UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City host AEK Athens FC on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Manchester City 84%, draw 11%, AEK Athens FC 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Manchester City €58.9M, AEK Athens FC €4.7M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the UEFA Champions League League Stage - 3: 551 points.
- Draw chance 11%, below the UEFA Champions League average of 23% this round.
- Premier League: Rúben Dias is the highest-rated defender (2704).
- Super League 1: L. Jović is the highest-rated forward (2133).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Manchester City goals first.
- 3–010%
- 2–09%
- 4–09%
- 3–18%
- 2–17%
- 4–17%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com3–0expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl3–0expected 5.7 pts
Team Elo: Manchester City 2618 · AEK Athens FC 2067
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Manchester City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2571
AEK Athens FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2219
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Manchester City
1st in Premier League · 21 pts from 7
- 17 OctWIpswich Premier League2592
- 14 OctLParis Saint Germain UEFA Champions League2653
- 11 OctWLiverpool Premier League2628
- 20 SepWSunderland Premier League2621
- 17 SepWNorwich England League Cup2296
AEK Athens FC
4th in Super League 1 · 14 pts from 6
- 14 OctLShakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League2104
- 10 OctWOFI Greece Super League2078
- 20 SepWVolos NFC Greece Super League2039
- 13 SepDAsteras Tripolis Greece Super League2063
- 8 SepWLask Linz UEFA Champions League2092
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 3 /2 | 15.8 | 62.5 | 36.7 | 0.8 |
| AEK Athens FC | 3 /2 | 7.8 | 0.6 | 30.2 | 69.2 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Manchester City: possession-based · creative (how Enzo Maresca plays) · AEK Athens FC: creative · possession-based (how Marko Nikolić plays)