J1 League · Regular Season - 15
Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Machida GION Stadium, Machida
Machida Zelvia host V-varen Nagasaki on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Machida Zelvia 68%, draw 19%, V-varen Nagasaki 12%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Machida Zelvia €1.5M, V-varen Nagasaki €362K.
- Draw chance 19%, below the J1 League average of 27% this round.
- J1 League: K. Tani is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2061).
- Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Machida Zelvia goals first.
- 2–013%
- 1–013%
- 2–110%
- 1–19%
- 3–09%
- 3–16%
- Other scores40%
Team Elo: Machida Zelvia 1923 · V-varen Nagasaki 1594
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Machida Zelvia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.8 (Good) · Elo 2061
V-varen Nagasaki · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1651
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Machida Zelvia
4th in J1 League · 29 pts from 14
- 8 NovDSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1926
- 5 NovWShanghai Shenhua AFC Cup1831
- 1 NovDGamba Osaka J1 League1932
- 29 OctWShanghai Shenhua AFC Cup1779
- 24 OctDVissel Kobe J1 League1955
V-varen Nagasaki
16th in J1 League · 13 pts from 14
- 7 NovDAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1572
- 1 NovLTokyo Verdy J1 League1650
- 25 OctLUrawa J1 League1626
- 21 OctWSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1543
- 17 OctLKashima J1 League1554
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 29 /14 | 74.1 | 32% | 87% | 0% | 1st |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 13 /14 | 39.4 | 0% | 0% | 29% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Machida Zelvia: direct (how Go Kuroda plays) · V-varen Nagasaki: balanced profile (how Takuya Takagi plays)