J1 League · Regular Season - 14
Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 05:00 UTC · Machida GION Stadium, Machida
Machida Zelvia host Sanfrecce Hiroshima on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Machida Zelvia 47%, draw 28%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Machida Zelvia €1.4M, Sanfrecce Hiroshima €1.4M.
- J1 League: K. Tani is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2052).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Machida Zelvia goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Machida Zelvia 1922 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1840
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Machida Zelvia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1987
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Elite) · Elo 1880
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Machida Zelvia
1st in J1 League · 26 pts from 11
- 21 OctWShimizu S-pulse J1 League1937
- 18 OctWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1919
- 15 OctWTampines Rovers AFC Cup1726
- 10 OctWKyoto Sanga J1 League1882
- 20 SepLKashiwa Reysol J1 League1902
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3rd in J1 League · 23 pts from 11
- 21 OctLV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1884
- 17 OctWKyoto Sanga J1 League1847
- 11 OctWTokyo Verdy J1 League1829
- 19 SepWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1821
- 12 SepWCerezo Osaka J1 League1811
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 26 /11 | 74.4 | 55% | 94% | 0% | 1st |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 23 /11 | 64.9 | 7% | 54% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Machida Zelvia: direct (how Go Kuroda plays) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima: creative · shot-heavy (how Bartosch Gaul plays)