J1 League · Regular Season - 13
Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 07:00 UTC · Machida GION Stadium, Machida
Machida Zelvia host Gamba Osaka on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Machida Zelvia 61%, draw 23%, Gamba Osaka 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Machida Zelvia €1.3M, Gamba Osaka €573K.
- J1 League: K. Tani is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2043).
- Style contrast in dribbling (J1 League): Machida Zelvia rank #22 of 23, Gamba Osaka #4.
- All 11 of Gamba Osaka's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Machida Zelvia goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Machida Zelvia 1899 · Gamba Osaka 1658
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Machida Zelvia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1962
Gamba Osaka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1735
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Machida Zelvia
2nd in J1 League · 23 pts from 10
- 18 OctWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1919
- 15 OctWTampines Rovers AFC Cup1726
- 10 OctWKyoto Sanga J1 League1882
- 20 SepLKashiwa Reysol J1 League1902
- 12 SepDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1904
Gamba Osaka
18th in J1 League · 7 pts from 10
- 17 OctDShimizu S-pulse J1 League1685
- 13 OctWNewcastle Jets AFC Champions League1645
- 9 OctLKashima J1 League1685
- 20 SepLVissel Kobe J1 League1675
- 15 SepWCông An Nhân Dân AFC Champions League1677
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 23 /10 | 73.1 | 36% | 85% | 0% | 1st |
| Gamba Osaka | 7 /10 | 42.3 | 0% | 0% | 18% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Machida Zelvia: direct (how Go Kuroda plays) · Gamba Osaka: balanced profile (how Tomokazu Myojin plays)