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J1 League · Regular Season - 10

Machida Zelvia 3–0 Avispa Fukuoka

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 07:00 UTC · Machida GION Stadium, Tokyo

Machida Zelvia crestMachida ZelviaTeam 1900
3–0
Full time
HT 1–0
Avispa Fukuoka crestAvispa FukuokaTeam 1545

Match story

Machida Zelvia · draw · Avispa Fukuoka

Before kick-off: 72% · 16% · 11%

Live chances: Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0% at 90+3'1' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 72%, draw 17%, Avispa Fukuoka 11%2' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 72%, draw 17%, Avispa Fukuoka 11%3' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 72%, draw 17%, Avispa Fukuoka 11%4' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 72%, draw 17%, Avispa Fukuoka 11%5' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 71%, draw 17%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%6' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 71%, draw 17%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%7' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 71%, draw 17%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%8' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 71%, draw 17%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%9' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 71%, draw 18%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%10' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 70%, draw 18%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%11' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 70%, draw 18%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%12' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 70%, draw 18%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%13' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 70%, draw 18%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%14' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 69%, draw 18%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%15' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 69%, draw 19%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%16' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 69%, draw 19%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%17' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 69%, draw 19%, Avispa Fukuoka 12%18' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 68%, draw 19%, Avispa Fukuoka 13%19' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 68%, draw 19%, Avispa Fukuoka 13%20' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 68%, draw 19%, Avispa Fukuoka 13%21' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 68%, draw 20%, Avispa Fukuoka 13%22' · 0–0 · Machida Zelvia 67%, draw 20%, Avispa Fukuoka 13%23' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 86%, draw 10%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%24' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 86%, draw 10%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%25' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 86%, draw 10%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%26' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 86%, draw 10%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%27' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 86%, draw 10%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%28' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 86%, draw 10%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%29' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 86%, draw 10%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%30' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 86%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%31' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%32' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%33' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%35' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%36' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%37' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%38' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%39' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%40' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%41' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%42' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 11%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%43' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%44' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%45' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%45+1' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%45+2' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%HT · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%46' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%47' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%48' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%49' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%50' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%51' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 4%52' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 12%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%53' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%54' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%55' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%56' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%57' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%58' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%59' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%60' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%61' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%62' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%63' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%64' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%65' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%66' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 3%67' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 84%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 2%68' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 2%69' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 2%70' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 2%71' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 2%72' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 2%73' · 1–0 · Machida Zelvia 85%, draw 13%, Avispa Fukuoka 2%74' · 2–0 · Machida Zelvia 98%, draw 2%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%75' · 2–0 · Machida Zelvia 98%, draw 1%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%76' · 2–0 · Machida Zelvia 98%, draw 1%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%77' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%78' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%79' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%80' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%82' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%83' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%84' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%85' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%86' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%87' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%88' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%89' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%90+1' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%90+2' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%90+3' · 3–0 · Machida Zelvia 100%, draw 0%, Avispa Fukuoka 0%

Last reading, 90+3': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Machida Zelvia 72% to win: they did.

  1. 22'Machida Zelvia:Tete Yengi 1852 +20 assist Henry Heroki Mochizuki 1941 +21
  2. 45'Avispa Fukuoka:Yuji Kitajima 1570 −1 for Werik Popo 1605 −2
  3. 54'Machida Zelvia:Daihachi Okamura 2021 +12
  4. 60'Machida Zelvia:Gen Shoji 1969 +13
  5. 65'Machida Zelvia:Takuma Nishimura 1882 +1 for Tete Yengi 1852 +20
  6. 68'Avispa Fukuoka:Kokoro Maeda 1495 0 for Keiya Shiihashi 1648 −7
  7. 68'Avispa Fukuoka:Yu Hashimoto 1668 −2 for Masato Yuzawa 1471 −4
  8. 73'Machida Zelvia:Hiroyuki Mae 1930 +19
  9. 76'Machida Zelvia:Henry Heroki Mochizuki 1941 +21 assist Takahiro Akimoto 1969 +18
  10. 77'Machida Zelvia:Mitchell Duke 1595 −5 for Koki Ogawa 1863 +7
  11. 77'Machida Zelvia:Ryohei Shirasaki 1662 −3 for Neta Lavi 1945 +4
  12. 79'Avispa Fukuoka:Shohei Takemoto 1425 −8* for Masato Shigemi 1591 −2
  13. 86'Avispa Fukuoka:Abdul Hanan Sani Brown 1381 0 for Shu Morooka 1695 −10
  14. 86'Machida Zelvia:Keiya Sento 1718 −3 for Yuki Soma 1962 +5
  15. 86'Machida Zelvia:Ibrahim Drešević 1881 −1 for Daihachi Okamura 2021 +12

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations3-4-2-1
GK. Tani2043+12
DG. Shōji1969+13
DD. Okamura2021+12
DT. Ouwejan1788+32
MH. Mochizuki1941+21
MH. Mae1930+19
MN. Lavi1945+4
MT. Akimoto1969+18
MKoki Ogawa1863+7
MY. Soma1962+5
FT. Yengi1852+20
CG. Kuroda2014+10
GY. Obata1561−1
DT. Oka1668−8
DM. Tashiro1536−5
DY. Tsujioka1627−5
MM. Yuzawa1471−4
MK. Shiihashi1648−7
MT. Miki1626−14*
MY. Maejima1654−8
MM. Shigemi1591−2
MS. Morooka1695−10
FWerik Popó1605−2
CS. Tsukahara15010
Before kick-off: 72% · 16% · 11%(Machida Zelvia · draw · Avispa Fukuoka)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–1 (9%); the result 3–0 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Machida Zelvia €1.4M, Avispa Fukuoka €413K.
  • J1 League: K. Tani was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2031).
  • Avispa Fukuoka's expected eleven was out of form: average -2.0 over 180 days.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Machida Zelvia

3rd in J1 League · 20 pts from 9

  • 15 OctWTampines Rovers 1726
  • 10 OctWKyoto Sanga 1882
  • 20 SepLKashiwa Reysol 1902
  • 12 SepDYokohama F. Marinos 1904
  • 6 SepWNagoya Grampus 1889

Avispa Fukuoka

17th in J1 League · 7 pts from 9

  • 10 OctWFagiano Okayama 1576
  • 19 SepLSanfrecce Hiroshima 1585
  • 12 SepLShimizu S-pulse 1613
  • 5 SepDMito Hollyhock 1602
  • 2 SepLUrawa 1633

Season outlook

From the J1 League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Machida Zelvia20 /971.740%86%0%1st
Avispa Fukuoka7 /940.90%0%25%17th
Machida Zelvia
Avispa Fukuoka

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: J1 League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Y. Soma
Y. Soma

Machida Zelvia · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1957

T. Miki
T. Miki

Avispa Fukuoka · +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1640

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Go Kuroda

Coach DNA: direct

Shinya Tsukahara

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Machida Zelvia: direct (how Go Kuroda plays) · Avispa Fukuoka: direct (how Shinya Tsukahara plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.