UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 5
Lyon vs Lillestrom
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Lyon host Lillestrom on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lyon 81%, draw 13%, Lillestrom 6%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lyon €10.2M, Lillestrom €496K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the UEFA Europa League League Stage - 5: 491 points.
- Draw chance 13%, below the UEFA Europa League average of 22% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lyon goals first.
- 2–013%
- 3–012%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 4–08%
- 3–18%
- Other scores42%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com3–0expected 1.3 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.7 pts
Team Elo: Lyon 2080 · Lillestrom 1589
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lyon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2215
Lillestrom · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1664
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lyon
5th in Ligue 1 · 17 pts from 10
- 8 NovLStade Brestois 29 Ligue 12100
- 5 NovDReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League2085
- 1 NovWAngers Ligue 12097
- 26 OctLParis Saint Germain Ligue 12131
- 22 OctL1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League2040
Lillestrom
4th in Eliteserien · 45 pts from 26
- 8 NovWAalesund Eliteserien1558
- 5 NovLPlzen UEFA Europa League1634
- 1 NovWStart Eliteserien1548
- 25 OctWBrann Eliteserien1550
- 22 OctLReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League1598
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 7 /4 | 14.0 | 31.1 | 67.0 | 2.0 |
| Lillestrom | 1 /4 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 99.8 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lyon: possession-based (how Jorge Maciel plays) · Lillestrom: balanced profile (how H. Ødegaard plays)