UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2
Lyon 3–2 Crystal Palace
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Groupama Stadium, Lyon
LyonTeam 2118
Crystal PalaceTeam 2280Match story
Lyon · draw · Crystal PalaceBefore kick-off: 32% · 28% · 40%
Last reading, 90+5': 98% · 2% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Corentin Tolisso 8'
- Ernest Nuamah 45+2'
- Pavel Šulc 76'
- Yeremy Pino 50'
- Daichi Kamada 81'
We gave Crystal Palace 40% to win: Lyon won.
- Corentin Tolisso 2188 +418'
Lyon:Corentin Tolisso 2188 +41 - 36'Ismaila Sarr 2283 −7
Crystal Palace:Ismaila Sarr 2283 −7 - Ernest Nuamah 2186 +35 assist Keito Nakamura 2074 +6845+2'
Lyon:Ernest Nuamah 2186 +35 assist Keito Nakamura 2074 +68 - 50'Yeremy Pino 2297 −25 assist Adam Wharton 2280 −27
Crystal Palace:Yeremy Pino 2297 −25 assist Adam Wharton 2280 −27 - 56'Yeremy Pino 2297 −25
Crystal Palace:Yeremy Pino 2297 −25 - Keito Nakamura 2074 +6858'
Lyon:Keito Nakamura 2074 +68 - 62'Eddie Nketiah 2266 −3 for Jörgen Strand Larsen 2177 −1
Crystal Palace:Eddie Nketiah 2266 −3 for Jörgen Strand Larsen 2177 −1 - 62'Daichi Kamada 2262 −4 for Ismaila Sarr 2283 −7
Crystal Palace:Daichi Kamada 2262 −4 for Ismaila Sarr 2283 −7 - Pavel Šulc 2166 +10 for Khalis Merah 2110 +1670'
Lyon:Pavel Šulc 2166 +10 for Khalis Merah 2110 +16 - Kail Boudache 1846 +8 for Ernest Nuamah 2186 +3570'
Lyon:Kail Boudache 1846 +8 for Ernest Nuamah 2186 +35 - 75'Dario Osorio 2077 −8* for Yeremy Pino 2297 −25
Crystal Palace:Dario Osorio 2077 −8* for Yeremy Pino 2297 −25 - 75'Anan Khalaili 2220 −1 for Oscar Mingueza 2184 −10*
Crystal Palace:Anan Khalaili 2220 −1 for Oscar Mingueza 2184 −10* - Pavel Šulc 2166 +10 assist Keito Nakamura 2074 +6876'
Lyon:Pavel Šulc 2166 +10 assist Keito Nakamura 2074 +68 - Tanner Tessmann 2236 +2 for Noah Teye Nartey 2067 +2078'
Lyon:Tanner Tessmann 2236 +2 for Noah Teye Nartey 2067 +20 - 81'Daichi Kamada 2262 −4
Crystal Palace:Daichi Kamada 2262 −4 - 82'Chris Richards 2309 −11
Crystal Palace:Chris Richards 2309 −11 - 86'Dwight McNeil 2210 −1 for Quinten Timber 2209 −4
Crystal Palace:Dwight McNeil 2210 −1 for Quinten Timber 2209 −4 - Mads Bidstrup 1953 0 for Corentin Tolisso 2188 +4190'
Lyon:Mads Bidstrup 1953 0 for Corentin Tolisso 2188 +41
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 32% · 28% · 40%(Lyon · draw · Crystal Palace)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 3–2 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Lyon €11.2M, Crystal Palace €24.1M.
- Lyon were without 1 expected starter: L. Openda (2163).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lyon
4th in Ligue 1 · 11 pts from 6
- 9 OctLLens Ligue 12146
- 19 SepWRennes Ligue 12110
- 16 SepWAnderlecht UEFA Europa League2040
- 12 SepDParis FC Ligue 12104
- 4 SepWAuxerre Ligue 12095
Crystal Palace
12th in Premier League · 7 pts from 6
- 11 OctWNottingham Forest Premier League2238
- 20 SepDLeeds Premier League2240
- 17 SepWLech Poznan UEFA Europa League2237
- 12 SepLIpswich Premier League2244
- 8 SepWMiddlesbrough England League Cup2176
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 1 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 3 /1 | 13.5 | 32.4 | 60.7 | 7.0 |
| Crystal Palace | 3 /1 | 15.9 | 65.3 | 33.4 | 1.3 |
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Lyon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2147

Crystal Palace · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2307
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lyon: possession-based (how Paulo Alexandre Rodrigues Fonseca plays) · Crystal Palace: balanced profile (how Pierre Sage plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.