UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Liverpool vs Villarreal
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool
Liverpool host Villarreal on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Liverpool 59%, draw 24%, Villarreal 17%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Liverpool €41.2M, Villarreal €11.8M.
- Liverpool are without 1 expected starter: D. Szoboszlai (2517).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Liverpool goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores47%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: Liverpool 2356 · Villarreal 2181
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: R. Gravenberch for D. Szoboszlai.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Liverpool · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 2438
Villarreal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.2 (Good) · Elo 2305
Absences
Liverpool
Ruled out
- D. SzoboszlaiMuscle Injury2517
- H. EkitikeAchilles Tendon Injury2417
- J. FrimpongMuscle Injury2409
- C. BradleyKnee Injury2356
- F. ChiesaOff the roster2115
- W. EndoOff the roster2008
- G. LeoniKnee Injury1848
Villarreal
Ruled out
- N. PépéEye injury2142
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Liverpool
5th in Premier League · 12 pts from 7
- 17 OctWBrentford Premier League2454
- 14 OctWLask Linz UEFA Champions League2239
- 11 OctLManchester City Premier League2397
- 20 SepWBournemouth Premier League2463
- 15 SepWTottenham England League Cup2133
Villarreal
12th in La Liga · 9 pts from 9
- 17 OctDElche La Liga2148
- 13 OctWNapoli UEFA Champions League2151
- 10 OctLReal Madrid La Liga2193
- 20 SepWLevante La Liga2151
- 17 SepWMalaga La Liga2131
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 6 /2 | 15.8 | 58.3 | 40.6 | 1.1 |
| Villarreal | 3 /2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 68.8 | 22.7 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Liverpool: creative · possession-based (how Andoni Iraola plays) · Villarreal: balanced profile (how Iñigo Pérez Soto plays)