UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Lillestrom host Real Sociedad on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lillestrom 9%, draw 16%, Real Sociedad 75%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lillestrom €475K, Real Sociedad €14.3M.
- Real Sociedad are without 1 expected starter: Y. Herrera (2030).
- Largest team-Elo gap of the UEFA Europa League League Stage - 3: 615 points.
- Draw chance 16%, below the UEFA Europa League average of 25% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lillestrom goals first.
- 0–211%
- 0–39%
- 1–29%
- 1–38%
- 1–17%
- 0–17%
- Other scores49%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–3expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–2expected 5.2 pts
Team Elo: Lillestrom 1591 · Real Sociedad 2206
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: Gonçalo Guedes for Y. Herrera.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lillestrom · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1632
Real Sociedad · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 2245
Absences
Real Sociedad
Ruled out
- J. AramburuLeg Injury2269
- Y. HerreraCalf Injury2030
- OdriozolaKnee Injury1875
- Luken BeitiaAnkle Injury1788
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lillestrom
6th in Eliteserien · 36 pts from 23
- 18 OctWSandefjord Eliteserien1582
- 15 OctDSparta Praha UEFA Europa League1583
- 11 OctDMolde Eliteserien1576
- 20 SepLViking Eliteserien1577
- 17 SepLTorreense UEFA Europa League1618
Real Sociedad
5th in La Liga · 16 pts from 9
- 18 OctWMalaga La Liga2180
- 15 OctDUnion St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League2169
- 11 OctWDeportivo La Coruna La Liga2156
- 20 SepWValencia La Liga2148
- 17 SepLBournemouth UEFA Europa League2110
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 1 /2 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 95.4 |
| Real Sociedad | 1 /2 | 12.4 | 16.3 | 77.5 | 6.2 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lillestrom: balanced profile (how Hans Erik Ødegaard plays) · Real Sociedad: balanced profile (how Pellegrino Matarazzo plays)