UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
Lille vs Galatasaray
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille
Lille host Galatasaray on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lille 33%, draw 29%, Galatasaray 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lille €11.1M, Galatasaray €12.2M.
- Lille are without 2 expected starters: Tiago Santos (2122) and A. Ueda (2110).
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Champions League average of 23% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lille goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Lille 2069 · Galatasaray 2216
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; in for ruled-out starters: M. Goffi for Tiago Santos, O. Giroud for A. Ueda.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Elite) · Elo 2126
Galatasaray · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2253
Absences
Lille
Ruled out
- Tiago SantosKnee Injury2122
- A. UedaFoot Injury2110
- H. IgamaneKnee Injury2044
- E. MbappéRed Card1977
Doubtful
- B. ÖzerInjury2196
Galatasaray
Ruled out
- K. AyhanOff the roster2019
- C. GunerOff the roster1967
- K. KarataşOff the roster1910
- A. ÜnyayOff the roster1478
Doubtful
- Rafael LeãoInjury2309
- L. TorreiraInjury2273
- W. SingoThigh Injury2270
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lille
4th in Ligue 1 · 14 pts from 7
- 17 OctDStade Brestois 29 Ligue 12027
- 13 OctLArsenal UEFA Champions League2126
- 10 OctWLe Havre Ligue 12044
- 20 SepLNice Ligue 12129
- 13 SepWEstac Troyes Ligue 12157
Galatasaray
1st in Süper Lig · 19 pts from 8
- 17 OctWGençlerbirliği S.K. Turkey Super Lig2207
- 13 OctLBarcelona UEFA Champions League2232
- 9 OctWKasımpaşa Turkey Super Lig2201
- 19 SepLTrabzonspor Turkey Super Lig2250
- 13 SepWKocaelispor Turkey Super Lig2250
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 0 /2 | 7.1 | 0.4 | 26.0 | 73.6 |
| Galatasaray | 0 /2 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 39.2 | 59.7 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lille: possession-based (how Davide Ancelotti plays) · Galatasaray: creative · shot-heavy (how Okan Buruk plays)