UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5
Lille vs Bayern München
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille host Bayern München on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (UEFA Champions League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lille 14%, draw 22%, Bayern München 64%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lille €11.9M, Bayern München €40.9M.
- Bundesliga: D. Upamecano is the highest-rated defender (2669).
- Bayern München's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 over 180 days.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lille goals first.
- 1–110%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–18%
- 0–37%
- 1–37%
- Other scores48%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–2expected 4.6 pts
Team Elo: Lille 2081 · Bayern München 2542
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lille · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2139
Bayern München · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.7 (Elite) · Elo 2669
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lille
2nd in Ligue 1 · 21 pts from 10
- 8 NovWRennes Ligue 12086
- 3 NovDBodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League2054
- 30 OctWLens Ligue 12060
- 25 OctDMonaco Ligue 12077
- 21 OctLGalatasaray UEFA Champions League2064
Bayern München
1st in Bundesliga · 21 pts from 9
- 7 NovWFSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga2527
- 3 NovWAtletico Madrid UEFA Champions League2502
- 31 OctDBorussia Dortmund Bundesliga2527
- 28 OctW1. FC Magdeburg Germany DFB Pokal2440
- 25 OctWSC Freiburg Bundesliga2473
League phase outlook
From the Champions League simulation, after 4 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1 /4 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 92.2 |
| Bayern München | 8 /4 | 16.6 | 73.4 | 26.6 | 0.0 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lille: possession-based (how Davide Ancelotti plays) · Bayern München: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Vincent Kompany plays)