UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC · National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Levski Sofia host Jagiellonia on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Levski Sofia 43%, draw 28%, Jagiellonia 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Levski Sofia €1.0M, Jagiellonia €1.2M.
- Home advantage makes Levski Sofia the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Levski Sofia goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: Levski Sofia 1776 · Jagiellonia 1797
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Levski Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1841
Jagiellonia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1831
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Levski Sofia
1st in First League · 28 pts from 10
- 22 OctWPlzen UEFA Europa League1794
- 15 OctDNEC Nijmegen UEFA Europa League1778
- 11 OctWCherno More Varna Bulgarian First League1736
- 17 SepLRed Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League1788
- 13 SepDBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1749
Jagiellonia
13th in Ekstraklasa · 12 pts from 10
- 22 OctLAnderlecht UEFA Europa League1778
- 18 OctLZaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa1817
- 15 OctWArarat-Armenia UEFA Europa League1801
- 10 OctLGornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa1812
- 20 SepLLegia Warszawa Ekstraklasa1811
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 3 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 4 /3 | 9.1 | 0.9 | 56.0 | 43.0 |
| Jagiellonia | 3 /3 | 7.2 | 0.3 | 27.6 | 72.1 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Levski Sofia: shot-heavy · creative (how Julio Velázquez plays) · Jagiellonia: possession-based (how Adrian Siemieniec plays)