UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Poznan
Lech Poznan host Sunderland on Thu 22 Oct 2026 (UEFA Europa League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lech Poznan 27%, draw 28%, Sunderland 46%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lech Poznan €2.4M, Sunderland €17.3M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lech Poznan goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 2–17%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.7 pts
Team Elo: Lech Poznan 1935 · Sunderland 2173
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lech Poznan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2002
Sunderland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2235
Absences
Lech Poznan
Ruled out
- A. SayyadmaneshGroin Injury1926
- A. GholizadehKnee Injury1875
- João MoutinhoInactive1780
- A. DouglasAnkle Injury1762
Sunderland
Ruled out
- D. BallardMuscle Injury2256
- C. TalbiOff the roster2190
- T. MeunierMuscle Injury2070
- A. BrowneOff the roster1929
- J. BiOff the roster1928
- R. MundleKnee Injury1908
- M. EllborgOff the roster1723
- J. AnguloOff the roster1619
Doubtful
- W. IsidorInjury2112
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lech Poznan
2nd in Ekstraklasa · 25 pts from 10
- 18 OctWKorona Kielce Ekstraklasa1940
- 15 OctLBayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League1954
- 10 OctWSlask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa1904
- 20 SepWRadomiak Radom Ekstraklasa1912
- 17 SepLCrystal Palace UEFA Europa League1925
Sunderland
19th in Premier League · 4 pts from 7
- 18 OctLBournemouth Premier League2168
- 15 OctWTorreense UEFA Europa League2042
- 10 OctLBrighton Premier League2247
- 20 SepLManchester City Premier League2224
- 16 SepWAZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League2251
League phase outlook
From the Europa League simulation, after 2 of 8 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 0 /2 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 37.6 | 61.9 |
| Sunderland | 6 /2 | 17.0 | 70.0 | 29.8 | 0.2 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lech Poznan: possession-based (how Niels Frederiksen plays) · Sunderland: balanced profile (how Régis Le Bris plays)