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Serie A · Regular Season - 6

Lecce 1–2 Bologna

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce crestLecceTeam 1843
1–2
Full time
HT 0–1
Bologna crestBolognaTeam 2032

Match story

Lecce · draw · Bologna

Before kick-off: 23% · 28% · 49%

Live chances: Lecce 0%, draw 2%, Bologna 98% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 28%, Bologna 49%2' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 28%, Bologna 49%3' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 28%, Bologna 49%4' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 28%, Bologna 49%5' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 28%, Bologna 49%6' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 28%, Bologna 48%7' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 28%, Bologna 48%8' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 29%, Bologna 48%9' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 29%, Bologna 48%10' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 29%, Bologna 48%11' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 29%, Bologna 48%12' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 29%, Bologna 47%13' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 29%, Bologna 47%14' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 30%, Bologna 47%15' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 30%, Bologna 47%16' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 30%, Bologna 47%17' · 0–0 · Lecce 23%, draw 30%, Bologna 46%18' · 0–1 · Lecce 10%, draw 19%, Bologna 71%19' · 0–1 · Lecce 10%, draw 19%, Bologna 71%20' · 0–1 · Lecce 10%, draw 19%, Bologna 71%21' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 19%, Bologna 71%22' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 19%, Bologna 71%24' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 19%, Bologna 71%25' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 20%, Bologna 71%26' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 20%, Bologna 71%27' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 20%, Bologna 71%28' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 20%, Bologna 71%29' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%30' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%31' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%32' · 0–1 · Lecce 9%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%33' · 0–1 · Lecce 8%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%34' · 0–1 · Lecce 8%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%35' · 0–1 · Lecce 8%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%36' · 0–1 · Lecce 8%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%38' · 0–1 · Lecce 8%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%39' · 0–1 · Lecce 8%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%40' · 0–1 · Lecce 8%, draw 20%, Bologna 72%41' · 0–1 · Lecce 8%, draw 20%, Bologna 73%42' · 0–1 · Lecce 8%, draw 20%, Bologna 73%43' · 0–1 · Lecce 7%, draw 20%, Bologna 73%44' · 0–1 · Lecce 7%, draw 20%, Bologna 73%45' · 0–1 · Lecce 7%, draw 20%, Bologna 73%45+1' · 0–1 · Lecce 7%, draw 20%, Bologna 73%45+2' · 0–1 · Lecce 7%, draw 20%, Bologna 73%45+3' · 0–1 · Lecce 7%, draw 20%, Bologna 73%HT · 0–1 · Lecce 7%, draw 20%, Bologna 73%46' · 0–1 · Lecce 7%, draw 20%, Bologna 73%47' · 0–1 · Lecce 7%, draw 20%, Bologna 74%48' · 0–1 · Lecce 6%, draw 20%, Bologna 74%49' · 0–1 · Lecce 6%, draw 20%, Bologna 74%50' · 0–1 · Lecce 6%, draw 20%, Bologna 74%51' · 0–1 · Lecce 6%, draw 20%, Bologna 74%52' · 0–1 · Lecce 6%, draw 20%, Bologna 74%53' · 0–1 · Lecce 6%, draw 20%, Bologna 75%54' · 0–1 · Lecce 6%, draw 20%, Bologna 75%55' · 0–1 · Lecce 5%, draw 19%, Bologna 75%56' · 0–1 · Lecce 5%, draw 19%, Bologna 75%57' · 0–1 · Lecce 5%, draw 19%, Bologna 76%58' · 0–1 · Lecce 5%, draw 19%, Bologna 76%59' · 0–1 · Lecce 5%, draw 19%, Bologna 76%60' · 0–1 · Lecce 5%, draw 19%, Bologna 76%61' · 0–1 · Lecce 4%, draw 19%, Bologna 77%62' · 0–1 · Lecce 4%, draw 19%, Bologna 77%63' · 0–1 · Lecce 4%, draw 19%, Bologna 77%64' · 0–1 · Lecce 4%, draw 18%, Bologna 78%65' · 0–1 · Lecce 4%, draw 18%, Bologna 78%66' · 1–1 · Lecce 19%, draw 52%, Bologna 29%67' · 1–1 · Lecce 18%, draw 53%, Bologna 29%68' · 1–1 · Lecce 18%, draw 54%, Bologna 28%69' · 1–1 · Lecce 18%, draw 55%, Bologna 28%70' · 1–1 · Lecce 17%, draw 56%, Bologna 27%71' · 1–1 · Lecce 17%, draw 57%, Bologna 26%72' · 1–1 · Lecce 17%, draw 58%, Bologna 26%73' · 1–1 · Lecce 16%, draw 59%, Bologna 25%74' · 1–1 · Lecce 16%, draw 60%, Bologna 24%75' · 1–1 · Lecce 16%, draw 61%, Bologna 24%76' · 1–2 · Lecce 2%, draw 15%, Bologna 82%77' · 1–2 · Lecce 2%, draw 15%, Bologna 83%78' · 1–2 · Lecce 2%, draw 15%, Bologna 83%79' · 1–2 · Lecce 2%, draw 14%, Bologna 84%80' · 1–2 · Lecce 2%, draw 14%, Bologna 85%81' · 1–2 · Lecce 1%, draw 13%, Bologna 85%82' · 1–2 · Lecce 1%, draw 13%, Bologna 86%83' · 1–2 · Lecce 1%, draw 12%, Bologna 86%84' · 1–2 · Lecce 1%, draw 12%, Bologna 87%85' · 1–2 · Lecce 1%, draw 11%, Bologna 88%86' · 1–2 · Lecce 1%, draw 11%, Bologna 89%87' · 1–2 · Lecce 1%, draw 10%, Bologna 89%88' · 1–2 · Lecce 1%, draw 9%, Bologna 90%89' · 1–2 · Lecce 0%, draw 8%, Bologna 91%90' · 1–2 · Lecce 0%, draw 8%, Bologna 92%90+1' · 1–2 · Lecce 0%, draw 7%, Bologna 93%90+2' · 1–2 · Lecce 0%, draw 6%, Bologna 94%90+3' · 1–2 · Lecce 0%, draw 4%, Bologna 95%90+4' · 1–2 · Lecce 0%, draw 3%, Bologna 97%90+5' · 1–2 · Lecce 0%, draw 2%, Bologna 98%

Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 2% · 98%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Bologna 49% to win: they did.

  1. 10'Lecce:Ivan Ilić 1998 −11*
  2. 17'Bologna:Riccardo Orsolini 2193 +21* assist Nicolo Cambiaghi 2159 +24*
  3. 31'Lecce:Paco Esteban 1629 −8*
  4. 36'Lecce:Oumar Ngom 1790 −8* for Ivan Ilić 1998 −11*
  5. 44'Bologna:Torbjørn Heggem 2269 +4
  6. 45+2'Lecce:Youssef Maleh 1887 −11*
  7. 55'Bologna:Eivind Helland 1895 +2* for Torbjørn Heggem 2269 +4
  8. 62'Lecce:Willem Geubbels 1897 −9* for Paco Esteban 1629 −8*
  9. 62'Bologna:Jay Enem 1648 +23* for Roberto Piccoli 2051 +4*
  10. 62'Lecce:Konan N'Dri 1705 −8* for Santiago Pierotti 1915 −10*
  11. 62'Bologna:Oussama El Azzouzi 1932 −1* for Tommaso Pobega 2166 0*
  12. 64'Lecce:Amar Fatah 1595 −8* assist Danilo Veiga 1966 −25*
  13. 75'Bologna:Jay Enem 1648 +23* assist Nicolo Cambiaghi 2159 +24*
  14. 79'Lecce:Omri Gandelman 1948 −1 for Youssef Maleh 1887 −11*
  15. 79'Lecce:Joel Almada Monteiro 1908 −9* for Amar Fatah 1595 −8*
  16. 81'Bologna:Rahim Alhassane 1807 −5* for Juan Miranda 2234 +1*
  17. 81'Bologna:Federico Bernardeschi 1958 −10* for Nicolo Cambiaghi 2159 +24*
  18. 90+4'Bologna:Oussama El Azzouzi 1932 −1*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations3-4-2-1
GW. Falcone1960−14*
DDanilo Veiga1966−25*
DJ. Siebert1920−12*
DTiago Gabriel1953−13*
DA. Gallo1967−26*
ML. Coulibaly1935−15*
MI. Ilić1998−11*
MY. Maleh1887−11*
FS. Pierotti1915−10*
FPaco Esteban1629−8*
FA. Ahmed Fatah1595−8*
CE. Di Francesco1938−17*
GM. Pessina1859+19*
DN. Casale2119+6*
DN. Zortea2075+8*
DT. Heggem2269+4
MM. Darmian1887+48*
ML. Ferguson2189+11
MT. Pobega21660*
MJuan Miranda2234+1*
MR. Orsolini2193+21*
MN. Cambiaghi2159+24*
FR. Piccoli2051+4*
CDomenico Tedesco2286
Before kick-off: 23% · 28% · 49%(Lecce · draw · Bologna)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–2 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Lecce €4.0M, Bologna €10.0M.
  • Lecce were without 1 expected starter: N. Štulić (1852).
  • Bologna were without 1 expected starter: J. Odgaard (2139).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Lecce

12th in Serie A · 6 pts from 5

  • 20 SepLAC Milan 1949
  • 13 SepWMonza 1909
  • 7 SepLCagliari 1936
  • 31 AugLAS Roma 1861
  • 23 AugWVenezia 1824

Bologna

19th in Serie A · 2 pts from 5

  • 19 SepDTorino 2114
  • 13 SepLNapoli 2102
  • 6 SepDSassuolo 2125
  • 31 AugLAtalanta 2114
  • 24 AugLLazio 2141

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Lecce6 /534.10%0%59%20th
Bologna2 /546.10%<1%6%12th
Lecce
Bologna

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

W. Falcone
W. Falcone

Lecce · +1.4 (Average) · Elo 1974

L. Ferguson
L. Ferguson

Bologna · +4.8 (Good) · Elo 2178

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Eusebio Luca Di Francesco

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Domenico Tedesco

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Lecce: direct (how Eusebio Luca Di Francesco plays) · Bologna: balanced profile (how Domenico Tedesco plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.