Serie A · Regular Season - 12
Lazio vs Lecce
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Lazio host Lecce on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Lazio 75%, draw 16%, Lecce 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Lazio €16.0M, Lecce €3.2M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Serie A matchday 12: 409 points.
- Draw chance 16%, below the Serie A average of 23% this round.
- Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Lazio goals first.
- 2–015%
- 1–013%
- 3–011%
- 2–19%
- 1–18%
- 3–17%
- Other scores37%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.5 pts
Team Elo: Lazio 2246 · Lecce 1837
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Lazio · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2391
Lecce · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.7 (Average) · Elo 1950
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Lazio
1st in Serie A · 29 pts from 11
- 8 NovDNapoli Serie A2276
- 1 NovWCagliari Serie A2291
- 27 OctWSassuolo Serie A2243
- 24 OctWParma Serie A2251
- 18 OctWJuventus Serie A2204
Lecce
14th in Serie A · 10 pts from 11
- 7 NovDTorino Serie A1855
- 1 NovLGenoa Serie A1847
- 29 OctLFrosinone Serie A1885
- 25 OctLJuventus Serie A1889
- 18 OctWUdinese Serie A1860
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 29 /11 | 74.3 | 7% | 69% | 0% | 4th |
| Lecce | 10 /11 | 29.3 | 0% | 0% | 75% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Lazio: balanced profile (how G. Gattuso plays) · Lecce: direct (how E. Di Francesco plays)