J1 League · Regular Season - 11
Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
Wed 21 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kyoto
Kyoto Sanga host Kashima on Wed 21 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kyoto Sanga 24%, draw 27%, Kashima 49%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kyoto Sanga €562K, Kashima €1.6M.
- Kyoto Sanga's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
- Kashima are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kyoto Sanga goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 2–16%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Kyoto Sanga 1632 · Kashima 1869
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kyoto Sanga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1744
Kashima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1955
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kyoto Sanga
16th in J1 League · 8 pts from 10
- 17 OctLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1547
- 13 OctWRatchaburi AFC Champions League1580
- 10 OctLMachida Zelvia J1 League1623
- 19 SepWFagiano Okayama J1 League1639
- 15 SepLDaejeon Citizen AFC Champions League1526
Kashima
6th in J1 League · 19 pts from 10
- 17 OctWV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1804
- 13 OctWCông An Nhân Dân AFC Champions League1883
- 9 OctWGamba Osaka J1 League1869
- 19 SepDKawasaki Frontale J1 League1863
- 15 SepWNewcastle Jets AFC Champions League1830
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto Sanga | 8 /10 | 41.6 | 0% | 0% | 22% | 16th |
| Kashima | 19 /10 | 66.9 | 9% | 53% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Kyoto Sanga: direct (how Ranko Popović plays) · Kashima: balanced profile (how Toru Oniki plays)