J1 League · Regular Season - 12
Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 07:00 UTC · Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium, Kawasaki
Kawasaki Frontale host Fagiano Okayama on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kawasaki Frontale 42%, draw 29%, Fagiano Okayama 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kawasaki Frontale €901K, Fagiano Okayama €474K.
- All 11 of Kawasaki Frontale's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kawasaki Frontale goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Kawasaki Frontale 1705 · Fagiano Okayama 1688
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kawasaki Frontale · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1794
Fagiano Okayama · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1775
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kawasaki Frontale
7th in J1 League · 16 pts from 10
- 17 OctWCerezo Osaka J1 League1715
- 11 OctLNagoya Grampus J1 League1734
- 19 SepDKashima J1 League1727
- 12 SepWMito Hollyhock J1 League1693
- 6 SepWShimizu S-pulse J1 League1689
Fagiano Okayama
11th in J1 League · 13 pts from 10
- 18 OctLVissel Kobe J1 League1703
- 10 OctLAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1696
- 19 SepLKyoto Sanga J1 League1738
- 13 SepWUrawa J1 League1686
- 6 SepWSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1645
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale | 16 /10 | 53.3 | <1% | 3% | <1% | 9th |
| Fagiano Okayama | 13 /10 | 49.1 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Kawasaki Frontale: balanced profile (how Shigetoshi Hasebe plays) · Fagiano Okayama: direct (how Takashi Kiyama plays)