J1 League · Regular Season - 15
Kawasaki Frontale vs Avispa Fukuoka
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium, Kawasaki
Kawasaki Frontale host Avispa Fukuoka on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kawasaki Frontale 51%, draw 27%, Avispa Fukuoka 23%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kawasaki Frontale €868K, Avispa Fukuoka €428K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (J1 League): Kawasaki Frontale rank #2 of 22, Avispa Fukuoka #19.
- Avispa Fukuoka's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.3 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Kawasaki Frontale's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kawasaki Frontale goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 0–16%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Kawasaki Frontale 1706 · Avispa Fukuoka 1583
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kawasaki Frontale · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1764
Avispa Fukuoka · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1580
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kawasaki Frontale
8th in J1 League · 22 pts from 14
- 7 NovLKashiwa Reysol J1 League1694
- 1 NovLYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1763
- 25 OctWFagiano Okayama J1 League1749
- 21 OctWVissel Kobe J1 League1671
- 17 OctWCerezo Osaka J1 League1705
Avispa Fukuoka
20th in J1 League · 8 pts from 14
- 7 NovDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1584
- 1 NovLJEF United Chiba J1 League1593
- 24 OctLTokyo Verdy J1 League1597
- 21 OctLGamba Osaka J1 League1582
- 18 OctLMachida Zelvia J1 League1602
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale | 22 /14 | 54.6 | <1% | 2% | <1% | 9th |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 8 /14 | 33.1 | 0% | 0% | 69% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Kawasaki Frontale: balanced profile (how Shigetoshi Hasebe plays) · Avispa Fukuoka: direct (how Shinya Tsukahara plays)