UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4
Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga
Thu 26 Nov 2026 · 17:45 UTC
Kauno Žalgiris host Riga on Thu 26 Nov 2026 (UEFA Europa Conference League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kauno Žalgiris 33%, draw 29%, Riga 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kauno Žalgiris €301K, Riga €493K.
- Draw chance 29%, above the UEFA Europa Conference League average of 23% this round.
- Virsliga: Reginaldo Ramires is the highest-rated forward (1768).
- All 11 of Kauno Žalgiris' expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Riga are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kauno Žalgiris goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–28%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–07%
- 0–07%
- Other scores48%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Kauno Žalgiris 1509 · Riga 1651
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kauno Žalgiris · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.5 (Good) · Elo 1531
Riga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Elite) · Elo 1762
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kauno Žalgiris
1st in A Lyga · 58 pts from 32
- 5 NovLFC Lugano UEFA Conference League1508
- 22 OctLBrann UEFA Conference League1539
- 15 OctLBrighton UEFA Conference League1556
- 27 AugWBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League1508
- 20 AugLBeşiktaş UEFA Europa League1514
Riga
2nd in Virsliga · 83 pts from 35
- 5 NovDFK Jablonec UEFA Conference League1647
- 1 NovDOgre United Latvia Virsliga1649
- 26 OctWGrobiņa Latvia Virsliga1602
- 22 OctDPafos UEFA Conference League1637
- 18 OctWSuper Nova Latvia Virsliga1559
League phase outlook
From the Conference League simulation, after 3 of 6 matchdays. Top 8 go to the round of 16, 9–24 to the knockout play-off, 25+ are out (in %).
| Club | Pts | Pred. pts | Top 8 | Play-off | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Žalgiris | 0 /3 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 94.7 |
| Riga | 3 /3 | 6.2 | 0.6 | 54.9 | 44.5 |
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –