J1 League · Regular Season - 9
Kashiwa Reysol 4–2 Vissel Kobe
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa City
Kashiwa ReysolTeam 1770Vissel KobeTeam 1816We gave Kashiwa Reysol 37% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 37% · 29% · 34%(Kashiwa Reysol · draw · Vissel Kobe)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 4–2 had 1%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Kashiwa Reysol €926K, Vissel Kobe €887K.
- Home advantage made Kashiwa Reysol the favourite: it added 5 points to their win chance.
- All 11 of Kashiwa Reysol's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
- All 11 of Vissel Kobe's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
- Vissel Kobe had won their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kashiwa Reysol
2nd in J1 League · 18 pts from 8
- 20 SepWMachida Zelvia J1 League1761
- 16 SepLJeonbuk Motors AFC Champions League1698
- 11 SepWKyoto Sanga J1 League1773
- 6 SepLYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1723
- 2 SepLCerezo Osaka J1 League1793
Vissel Kobe
1st in J1 League · 19 pts from 8
- 20 SepWGamba Osaka J1 League1849
- 16 SepWPort FC AFC Champions League1824
- 11 SepWKashima J1 League1823
- 6 SepWV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1804
- 2 SepWTokyo Verdy J1 League1791
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol | 18 /8 | 64.4 | 9% | 46% | 0% | 3rd |
| Vissel Kobe | 19 /8 | 67.8 | 19% | 67% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kashiwa Reysol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1827
Vissel Kobe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1914
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Kashiwa Reysol: possession-based (how Ricardo Rodríguez Suárez plays) · Vissel Kobe: high-pressing (how Michael Heinz Skibbe plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.