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J1 League · Regular Season - 10

Kashiwa Reysol 1–3 Nagoya Grampus

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa City

Kashiwa Reysol crestKashiwa ReysolTeam 1808
1–3
Full time
HT 1–2
Nagoya Grampus crestNagoya GrampusTeam 1635

Match story

Kashiwa Reysol · draw · Nagoya Grampus

Before kick-off: 55% · 24% · 20%

Live chances: Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 0%, Nagoya Grampus 100% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Kashiwa Reysol 55%, draw 24%, Nagoya Grampus 20%2' · 0–0 · Kashiwa Reysol 55%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 20%3' · 0–0 · Kashiwa Reysol 55%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 20%4' · 0–0 · Kashiwa Reysol 55%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 20%5' · 0–0 · Kashiwa Reysol 55%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 20%6' · 0–0 · Kashiwa Reysol 55%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 20%7' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 38%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 36%8' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 38%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 36%9' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 38%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 36%10' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 37%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 37%11' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 37%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 37%12' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 37%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 37%14' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 36%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 37%15' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 36%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 38%16' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 35%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 38%17' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 35%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 38%18' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 35%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 38%19' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 34%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 39%20' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 34%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 39%21' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 34%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 39%22' · 0–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 33%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 39%23' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 51%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 21%24' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 51%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 21%25' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 51%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 21%26' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 51%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 21%27' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 51%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 21%28' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 50%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 21%29' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 50%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 21%30' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 50%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 21%31' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 50%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 21%32' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 49%, draw 30%, Nagoya Grampus 21%33' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 49%, draw 30%, Nagoya Grampus 21%34' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 49%, draw 30%, Nagoya Grampus 21%35' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 49%, draw 30%, Nagoya Grampus 21%36' · 1–1 · Kashiwa Reysol 48%, draw 31%, Nagoya Grampus 21%37' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 28%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 44%38' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 27%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 44%39' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 27%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 44%40' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 27%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 45%41' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 26%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 45%42' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 26%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 45%43' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 25%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 46%44' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 25%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 46%45' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 24%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 46%45+1' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 24%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 47%45+2' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 24%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 47%45+3' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 23%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 48%45+4' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 23%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 48%45+5' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 23%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 48%45+6' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 23%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 48%45+7' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 23%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 48%45+8' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 23%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 48%45+9' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 23%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 48%HT · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 23%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 48%48' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 22%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 49%49' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 21%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 49%50' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 21%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 50%51' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 20%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 50%52' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 20%, draw 30%, Nagoya Grampus 51%53' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 19%, draw 30%, Nagoya Grampus 51%54' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 19%, draw 30%, Nagoya Grampus 52%55' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 18%, draw 30%, Nagoya Grampus 52%56' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 17%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 53%57' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 17%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 54%58' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 16%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 54%59' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 16%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 55%60' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 15%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 55%61' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 15%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 56%62' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 14%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 57%63' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 14%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 57%64' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 13%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 58%65' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 13%, draw 29%, Nagoya Grampus 59%66' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 12%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 59%67' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 12%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 60%68' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 11%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 61%69' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 11%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 62%70' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 10%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 62%71' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 10%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 63%72' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 9%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 64%73' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 9%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 65%74' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 8%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 66%75' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 8%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 67%76' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 7%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 68%77' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 7%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 69%78' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 6%, draw 24%, Nagoya Grampus 70%79' · 1–2 · Kashiwa Reysol 6%, draw 24%, Nagoya Grampus 71%80' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 4%, Nagoya Grampus 96%81' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 3%, Nagoya Grampus 96%82' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 3%, Nagoya Grampus 97%83' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 3%, Nagoya Grampus 97%84' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 2%, Nagoya Grampus 97%85' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 2%, Nagoya Grampus 98%86' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 2%, Nagoya Grampus 98%87' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 2%, Nagoya Grampus 98%88' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 1%, Nagoya Grampus 99%89' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 1%, Nagoya Grampus 99%90' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 1%, Nagoya Grampus 99%90+1' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 1%, Nagoya Grampus 99%90+2' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 0%, Nagoya Grampus 100%90+3' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 0%, Nagoya Grampus 100%90+4' · 1–3 · Kashiwa Reysol 0%, draw 0%, Nagoya Grampus 100%

Last reading, 90+4': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score. Shaded: minutes without a reading.

We gave Kashiwa Reysol 55% to win: Nagoya Grampus won.

  1. 6'Nagoya Grampus:Takuya Uchida 1764 +69 assist Yudai Kimura 1747 +49
  2. 13'Kashiwa Reysol:Kengo Nagai 1511 −1 for Tomoya Wakahara 1573 0
  3. 16'Kashiwa Reysol:Yoshio Koizumi 1844 −24
  4. 23'Kashiwa Reysol:Keita Endo 1812 −41 assist Shota Fujio 1866 −20
  5. 36'Nagoya Grampus:Yudai Kimura 1747 +49 assist Kensuke Nagai 1442 +111
  6. 45'Kashiwa Reysol:Yusuke Segawa 1689 −5 for Hinata Yamauchi 1755 −3
  7. 45'Kashiwa Reysol:Wataru Harada 1770 −6 for Sachiro Toshima 1649 −3
  8. 52'Kashiwa Reysol:Daiki Sugioka 1841 −22
  9. 57'Nagoya Grampus:Hidemasa Koda 1558 +16 for Kensuke Nagai 1442 +111
  10. 63'Nagoya Grampus:Yuya Yamagishi 1659 +22 for Yudai Kimura 1747 +49
  11. 68'Kashiwa Reysol:Kenshin Yuba 1579 0 for Keita Endo 1812 −41
  12. 68'Kashiwa Reysol:Riki Harakawa 1527 −5 for Yudai Konishi 1644 −1
  13. 73'Kashiwa Reysol:Mao Hosoya 1695 0 for Shota Fujio 1866 −20
  14. 77'Nagoya Grampus:Masahito Ono 1355 +8 for Tsukasa Morishima 1729 +20
  15. 77'Nagoya Grampus:Tomoya Koyamatsu 1770 −8* for Yuki Nogami 1586 +30
  16. 77'Nagoya Grampus:Shuhei Tokumoto 1668 −6* for Ryuji Izumi 1650 +25
  17. 79'Nagoya Grampus:Yuya Yamagishi 1659 +22 assist Hidemasa Koda 1558 +16
  18. 86'Nagoya Grampus:Yota Sato 1665 +1 for Tomoki Takamine 1711 +25

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations3-4-2-1
GT. Wakahara15730
DS. Toshima1649−3
DT. Koga1811−17
DD. Sugioka1841−22
MT. Kubo1842−22
MY. Konishi1644−1
MN. Nakagawa1839−22
MK. Endo1812−41
MY. Koizumi1844−24
MH. Yamauchi1755−3
FS. Fujio1866−20
CRicardo Rodríguez1804−32
GD. Schmidt1753+71
DT. Hara1741+23
DH. Fujii1782+63
DY. Nogami1586+30
MT. Uchida1764+69
MS. Inagaki1684+24
MT. Morishima1729+20
MT. Takamine1711+25
MR. Izumi1650+25
MY. Kimura1747+49
FK. Nagai1442+111
CMihailo Petrovic1691
Before kick-off: 55% · 24% · 20%(Kashiwa Reysol · draw · Nagoya Grampus)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–3 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Kashiwa Reysol €920K, Nagoya Grampus €468K.
  • Style contrast in chance creation (J1 League): Kashiwa Reysol ranked #2 of 23, Nagoya Grampus #20.
  • All 11 of Kashiwa Reysol's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
  • All 11 of Nagoya Grampus' expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Kashiwa Reysol

1st in J1 League · 21 pts from 9

  • 14 OctWPort FC 1701
  • 9 OctWVissel Kobe 1775
  • 20 SepWMachida Zelvia 1761
  • 16 SepLJeonbuk Motors 1698
  • 11 SepWKyoto Sanga 1773

Nagoya Grampus

15th in J1 League · 9 pts from 9

  • 11 OctWKawasaki Frontale 1628
  • 19 SepLFC Tokyo 1676
  • 12 SepLV-varen Nagasaki 1670
  • 6 SepLMachida Zelvia 1633
  • 2 SepLSanfrecce Hiroshima 1679

Season outlook

From the J1 League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Kashiwa Reysol21 /966.513%61%0%3rd
Nagoya Grampus9 /945.60%<1%10%13th
Kashiwa Reysol
Nagoya Grampus

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: J1 League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Y. Koizumi
Y. Koizumi

Kashiwa Reysol · +4.8 (Good) · Elo 1868

S. Inagaki
S. Inagaki

Nagoya Grampus · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1660

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Ricardo Rodríguez Suárez

Coach DNA: possession-based

Mihailo Petrovic

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Kashiwa Reysol: possession-based (how Ricardo Rodríguez Suárez plays) · Nagoya Grampus: balanced profile (how Mihailo Petrovic plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.