J1 League · Regular Season - 15
Kashiwa Reysol vs JEF United Chiba
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa
Kashiwa Reysol host JEF United Chiba on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kashiwa Reysol 61%, draw 23%, JEF United Chiba 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kashiwa Reysol €818K, JEF United Chiba €368K.
- JEF United Chiba's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.0 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Kashiwa Reysol's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Kashiwa Reysol are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kashiwa Reysol goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Kashiwa Reysol 1811 · JEF United Chiba 1564
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kashiwa Reysol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1859
JEF United Chiba · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1484
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kashiwa Reysol
4th in J1 League · 28 pts from 13
- 3 NovWDaejeon Citizen AFC Champions League1814
- 31 OctWUrawa J1 League1754
- 27 OctDRatchaburi AFC Champions League1708
- 24 OctWKashima J1 League1751
- 21 OctDFC Tokyo J1 League1717
JEF United Chiba
18th in J1 League · 10 pts from 13
- 1 NovWAvispa Fukuoka J1 League1465
- 25 OctDCerezo Osaka J1 League1513
- 21 OctLUrawa J1 League1457
- 17 OctDYokohama F. Marinos J1 League1495
- 11 OctDV-varen Nagasaki J1 League1517
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol | 28 /13 | 68.1 | 9% | 53% | 0% | 4th |
| JEF United Chiba | 10 /13 | 35.4 | 0% | 0% | 56% | 19th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Kashiwa Reysol: possession-based (how Ricardo Rodríguez plays) · JEF United Chiba: balanced profile (how Yoshiyuki Kobayashi plays)