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J1 League · Regular Season - 10

Kashima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 06:00 UTC · Mercari Stadium, Kashima

Kashima crestKashimaTeam 1826
2–0
Full time
HT 2–0
V-varen Nagasaki crestV-varen NagasakiTeam 1551

Match story

Kashima · draw · V-varen Nagasaki

Before kick-off: 64% · 21% · 15%

Live chances: Kashima 100%, draw 0%, V-varen Nagasaki 0% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Kashima 64%, draw 21%, V-varen Nagasaki 15%2' · 0–0 · Kashima 64%, draw 22%, V-varen Nagasaki 15%3' · 1–0 · Kashima 84%, draw 11%, V-varen Nagasaki 5%4' · 1–0 · Kashima 84%, draw 11%, V-varen Nagasaki 5%5' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%6' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%7' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%8' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%9' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%10' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%11' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%12' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%13' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%14' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%15' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%16' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%17' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%18' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%19' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%20' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%21' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%22' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%23' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%24' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%25' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%26' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%27' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%28' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%29' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%30' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%31' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%32' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%33' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%34' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%35' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%36' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%37' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%38' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%39' · 2–0 · Kashima 96%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%40' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%41' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%42' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%43' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 1%44' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%45' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%45+1' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%45+2' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%45+3' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%45+4' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%HT · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%46' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%47' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%48' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%49' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%50' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%51' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%52' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 3%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%53' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%54' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%55' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%56' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%57' · 2–0 · Kashima 97%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%58' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%59' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%60' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%61' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%62' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%63' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%64' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%65' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%66' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%67' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%68' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%69' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%70' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 2%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%71' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%72' · 2–0 · Kashima 98%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%73' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%74' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%75' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%76' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%77' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%78' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%79' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%80' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%81' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%82' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%83' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%84' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%85' · 2–0 · Kashima 99%, draw 1%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%86' · 2–0 · Kashima 100%, draw 0%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%87' · 2–0 · Kashima 100%, draw 0%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%88' · 2–0 · Kashima 100%, draw 0%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%89' · 2–0 · Kashima 100%, draw 0%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%90' · 2–0 · Kashima 100%, draw 0%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%90+1' · 2–0 · Kashima 100%, draw 0%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%90+2' · 2–0 · Kashima 100%, draw 0%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%90+3' · 2–0 · Kashima 100%, draw 0%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%90+4' · 2–0 · Kashima 100%, draw 0%, V-varen Nagasaki 0%

Last reading, 90+4': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Kashima 64% to win: they did.

  1. 2'Kashima:Léo Ceará 1955 +12 (pen.)
  2. 5'Kashima:Aleksandar Čavrić 1804 +17 assist Haruki Hayashi 1724 +33
  3. 23'V-varen Nagasaki:Tenmu Matsumoto 1452 0
  4. 43'V-varen Nagasaki:Jonathan Junior 1413 −1
  5. 45'Kashima:Ryoya Ogawa 1917 +7 for Sho Omori 1544 +23
  6. 54'V-varen Nagasaki:Kenshin Yasuda 1293 0 for Tenmu Matsumoto 1452 0
  7. 55'Kashima:Yuta Matsumura 1903 +7 for José Élber Pimentel da Silva 1658 +16
  8. 67'V-varen Nagasaki:Ryosuke Shindo 1673 −3 for Ikki Arai 1475 −4
  9. 67'V-varen Nagasaki:Ryogo Yamasaki 1277 −13* for Jonathan Junior 1413 −1
  10. 72'Kashima:Yuma Suzuki 1940 −1 for Aleksandar Čavrić 1804 +17
  11. 72'Kashima:Kento Misao 1946 −1 for Gaku Shibasaki 1758 +17
  12. 82'V-varen Nagasaki:Kenshin Yasuda 1293 0
  13. 85'Kashima:Homare Tokuda 1561 +1 for Léo Ceará 1955 +12
  14. 85'V-varen Nagasaki:Hijiri Onaga 1634 −11* for Asahi Masuyama 1522 −2
  15. 85'V-varen Nagasaki:Takashi Sawada 1259 −15* for Hotaru Yamaguchi 1597 −10

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-4-2Formations3-4-2-1
GT. Hayakawa2020+11
DK. Tsukui1783+28
DN. Ueda2010+9
DI. Sekigawa1950+8*
DS. Omori1544+23
MH. Hayashu1724+33
MG. Shibasaki1758+17
MMatheus Bueno1850+22
MÉlber1658+16
FLéo Ceará1955+12
FA. Čavrić1804+17
CT. Oniki1979+10
GM. Goto1538−1
DT. Ominami1717−22
DI. Arai1475−4
DK. Doi1684−6
MA. Masuyama1522−2
MH. Yamaguchi1597−10
MT. Matsumoto14520
MS. Yoneda1412−3
MMatheus Jesus1646−6
MM. Hasegawa1643−11
FJonathan1413−1
CT. Takagi1632−5
Before kick-off: 64% · 21% · 15%(Kashima · draw · V-varen Nagasaki)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%), and that was the result.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Kashima €1.0M, V-varen Nagasaki €366K.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Kashima

6th in J1 League · 16 pts from 9

  • 13 OctWCông An Nhân Dân 1883
  • 9 OctWGamba Osaka 1869
  • 19 SepDKawasaki Frontale 1863
  • 15 SepWNewcastle Jets 1830
  • 11 SepLVissel Kobe 1858

V-varen Nagasaki

14th in J1 League · 9 pts from 9

  • 11 OctDJEF United Chiba 1601
  • 19 SepDCerezo Osaka 1608
  • 12 SepWNagoya Grampus 1570
  • 6 SepLVissel Kobe 1615
  • 2 SepDGamba Osaka 1613

Season outlook

From the J1 League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Kashima16 /966.410%55%0%4th
V-varen Nagasaki9 /942.90%0%20%16th
Kashima
V-varen Nagasaki

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: J1 League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Léo Ceará
Léo Ceará

Kashima · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1943

Matheus Jesus
Matheus Jesus

V-varen Nagasaki · +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1652

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Toru Oniki

Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy

Takuya Takagi

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Kashima: balanced profile (how Toru Oniki plays) · V-varen Nagasaki: balanced profile (how Takuya Takagi plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.