J1 League · Regular Season - 15
Kashima vs Shimizu S-pulse
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Mercari Stadium, Kashima
Kashima host Shimizu S-pulse on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (J1 League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Kashima 60%, draw 23%, Shimizu S-pulse 17%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Kashima €1.6M, Shimizu S-pulse €510K.
- Shimizu S-pulse's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Kashima goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Kashima 1874 · Shimizu S-pulse 1639
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Kashima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1895
Shimizu S-pulse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1665
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Kashima
6th in J1 League · 23 pts from 13
- 4 NovDBuriram United AFC Champions League1717
- 31 OctWCerezo Osaka J1 League1892
- 28 OctWPohang Steelers AFC Champions League1772
- 24 OctLKashiwa Reysol J1 League1862
- 21 OctDKyoto Sanga J1 League1894
Shimizu S-pulse
13th in J1 League · 14 pts from 13
- 31 OctLKyoto Sanga J1 League1644
- 24 OctLSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League1644
- 21 OctLMachida Zelvia J1 League1646
- 17 OctDGamba Osaka J1 League1668
- 11 OctWMito Hollyhock J1 League1669
Season outlook
From the J1 League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | 23 /13 | 65.4 | 4% | 35% | 0% | 6th |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 14 /13 | 43.2 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Kashima: balanced profile (how Toru Oniki plays) · Shimizu S-pulse: balanced profile (how Takayuki Yoshida plays)